Preseason game 1 - good and bad

Nobody worries about who wins the preseason games, we all just want to scout the new players and see if they are showing any talent or ability. We take a look at the question marks and see what we can expect from our team in the coming season. This first game was mostly a positive exercise for the Giants with one notable exception.

On the good side, all of the 3 top draft picks looked like dynamic players who will contribute immediately to the team. Wilson looked fast and electric with his cuts. Randle had only two balls thrown to him but he made a great catch on the first one, where he looked back for the ball too late, after it had already been released by QB Carr, but he smoothly adjusted his hands to the flight of the ball and it stuck like Velcro. Hosely made a good punt return (and one muff) but looked very quick in pass coverage. Marvin Austin looked good at DT as did Hendricks, both guiys from last year's practice squad; and Adrian Tracy looked great at DE. Giants have almost an embarrassment of riches along the DL. I don't know how they're going to manage the final roster, because you can't carry 12 DL-men on the final squad. If Hendricks and Tracy continue to impress and if Canty comes back strong from his injury, I would not be surprised if either Rocky Bernard or Shaun Rogers fail to make the team. (That would be ironic, since the Giants desire to sign these two, to stock up on DL-men to protect them against loss of Canty and Austin, is what caused them to lose Ballard to the Patriots.) Canty seems to be progressing very slowly, so I wonder if he will be IR'ed this year, whcih would be a big loss for the defense. Herzlich also played very well at MLB, though it is hard to tell sometimes from the limited camera angles you get at the game.

The one piece of bad news, IMO is Amukamara getting beat in that first drive twice, once for a big gain and once for the TD. He played well in the playoffs and towards the end of the season, so I'm not calling him a bust, but I want to see more from him.

The other piece of bad news fro me is Mitch Petrus - he looks really athletic and seems like a powerful run blocker. But he seems to miss a lot in pass blocking which is a big problem. I am hoping he would improve there and win the job, but he had a couple of whiffs in the Jacksonville game. I hope he can improve there.

I also loved what Martellus Bennet gave the Giants. His blocking was good and his pass catching was excellent. He will be a real plus if he stays healthy.

I am still intrigued by what the Giants might do at RB. Last year the Giants carried on the active roster 4 RBs: Jacobs, Bradshaw, DJ Ware and Da'rel Scott. Andre Brown was on the practice squad and the Giants also carried FB Hynoski and FB/TE Pascoe. If the Giants carry only 4 RBs again this year, it seems like the obvious choices will be: Bradshaw, Ware and Wilson, with one of Brown and Scott being released or put on the practice squad. However, I beg to differ with this strategy. DJ Ware, Bradshaw and Wilson are all too similar in style. It's true that Ware is a little bigger, but he is not a power runner. He is smooth and comes out of the backfield well as receiver and 3rd down back. But this is a role I see Wilson filling and if the Giants want to add a little power to their RB mix, I would think about keeping Andre Brown instead. Ware has a little bit of a resume and some team might be willing to give a low round draft choice for him, but if not, the team might release Ware and carry Bradshaw, Wilson, Scott and Brown as the RB group. It's a little too early to figure out the roster moves, but this could be a really interesting area.

Preseason game 1

Nicks is said to be making progress and should even get a few weeks of preseason practice in before the regular season. starts.

I am really eager to see the RBs perform in the preseason and particularly the opener tonight. Giants have 5 RBs with varying levels of skill and accomplishments on their resume. One thing is certain - Giants have made the transition from the old school big power running game to an emphasis on speed and quickness. It was just a few years ago, in the 2008 season following the 2007 Super Bowl where the primary runners were Jacobs and Derrick Ward. It was a very successful running attack - both runners gained more than 1,000 yards in the season, an impressive accomplishment. While Ward had a little more speed and a slightly different style than Jacobs, neither were speed burners and both would be considered power backs. Bradshaw was the speed guy coming off the bench. He had good contribution in the 2007 playoff run but played sparingly and gained only 350 yards in the 2008 season. Now Bradshaw is the primary ball carrier on the team and is probably considered the tough power back of the group instead of the speed guy he was when he first came to the team. The Giants have added speed to that group with Da'Rel Scott and David Wilson in last two drafts. DJ Ware is kind of a 'tweener - has some strength and not blazing fast but is more of third down finesse player. Not sure if Andre Brown will make the team, but he also is not a big bruiser. The point is that the Giants have consciously made a transition to speed and it shows up at RB.

It also shows up at other spots on the roster, specifically, at LB. They moved away from Antonio Pierce a few years ago, cut Chase Blackburn last year only to re-sign him when injuries caught up with them and even drafted TEs in recent years - Beckum and this year's draftee Adrien Robinson who are more athletic and can run. At LB now, the Giants have gone for speed whereever they can - the trade for Rivers, the acquisitions of Herzlich, J Williams and Greg Jones who are all very athletic players for that position. On the DL - the Giants in JPP, Tuck and Osi certainly have the fastest and probably most athletic group of DEs in the game. At DT, Linval Joseph is really quick for someone so strong and Marvin Austin is extremely quick. Giants are big enough to contend with the power game of opponents, but clearly have made a shift towards speed and quickness throughout their roster.

The RB position is interesting, but the WR competition is also intense. Barden, Jernigan, Hixon and Randle all have something to show in these games. I am really hopeful that Barden and Jernigan step up and contribute. Behind that group are some unheralded players Douglas, DePalma and Talley that have played well incamp and caught the eye of the coaches.

It's interesting - Giants won the Super Bowl last year and got absolutely nothing from their top 3 draft picks. Amukamara was out most of the year and contributed only a little at the very end. Austin was out for the year and Jernigan did not catch a single pass. Contrast that with the 2007 Super Bowl where so many of the draftees played significant roles in the title. Now consider that these 3 first rounders from last year are all healthy, gaining great experience and seem poised to contribute. It's almost as if the Giants have a double draft this year, with 6 first-through-third round players joining the roster.

More camp chatter

I keep hearing that the young CBs are having great camps. Jayron Hosley, the 3rd round draft choice is looking particularly strong and may even be pushing Amukamara and challenging for the starting spot. Michael Coe is playing well and Bruce Johnson seems to have recovered from his injuries and is playing solid. Add in veteran Molden and the Giants have great depth at CB. The one challenge will be finding someone to play the slot receiver when the Giants are in nickel coverage. Hosley has no experience doing that, so he may start on the outside, just because Amukamara can do a better job on the slot receiver. We could see Antrel Rolle filling that position again, which is not bad, because he's not the best S in the league, his own self evaluation notwithstanding. Tyler Sash and Will Hill will get some playing time at S if they play well enough to make the team (Sash seems like a lock but Hill is still a maybe)  and the Giants may yet bring back Deon Grant for some extra depth at that position.

Herzlich and Blackburn are close for the starting MLB position - Herzlich is playing really well this summer.  I want to see him win the job because he is so much more athletic and therefore IMO, fits better in the pass dominated NFL.

If you look at the bad injuries the Giants had last year and the depth that they have filled in this year, the Giants could have a better defense than what they showed even in the last 6 games of the season. The change from the first 14 games to the last 6 was stunning. In the first 14, Giants allowed an average of about 25 points per game. But from the Jets game on, they allowed an average of only 14 points per game over those last 6 games. And - they played 2 of the 3 best offense in the league, Green Bay and New England, avoiding only the Saints in their Super Bowl run.

I am very anxious to see the performance of the players at the contested positions. I want to see the RBs, the LBs, the OL and the WRs. I am also anxious to see Marvin Austin at DT. Giants coaches are really high on him and with Canty likely to miss some time at the beginning of the season, his presence should be important.

At WR, I am not sure who will make the team. If WRs can play ST, you can carry a few more. Nicks, Cruz, Jernigan and Randle are locks to make the team. Hixon is almost certain to make the team. After that, Barden, Douglas and DePalma may be battling for that 6th WR spot, if indeed they do carry 6 WRs. Julian Talley and some other lesser known players may have a chance to make the team if they can be ST contributors, but the Giants may end up cutting a player from that group that shows up on another NFL roster.

Camp Chatter

As I said in an earlier post, it's really hard to tell how good a player will be just by judging his performance in practice. They all look like HOF-ers before they get onto the field in a real game. Fran Tarkenton, old time HOF QB, they said was the worst practice QB anyone had ever seen. His arm strength was poor and while his accuracy was always good on the medium and short throws, he never looked good in practice. Roll him out there on Sundays, however and he looked great. He might be an exceptional case because he was the original scrambling QB and that just doesn't get put on display when you're wearing the red jersey and nobody can touch you. Nevertheless, he was famous for looking like garbage in practice. Conversely, Kent Graham looked like an absolute stud in practice. He had a really strong arm, had a great football body and in practice, when both sides are not quite going at game speed and he didn't have to worry about a pass rush, or about making the proper reads against a defense he knew from playing against every day, he would be zinging balls all over the place and looked like the second coming of John Elway. However on Sunday.... not so much, to use the colloquial expression.

So we should certainly consider the source when we hear about great performance on the practice field. But we can at least be optimistic about good training camp performances and hope that it translates to success come game time. Giants lost a very productive player from last year's passing game in Manningham. There seems to be a lot of talent to fill in for Manningham and it's nice to hear that some of those players are stepping up. Randle is having a good camp as is Barden. Hixon is playing very well from all reports. Jernigan, last year's third round choice is having a very strong camp, which is very encouraging since he showed nothing last year. Jernigan is playing well both in the slot as well as outside, which gives flexibility to the lineup. Some of the lower end WRs, Douglas and DePalma are also having a great camp and they were not really expected to compete for a roster spot. I am most excited about Jernigan and am very anxious to see how he plays in the preseason.

I have not heard much about the TE situation, which is somewhat worrying to me. I would not be surprised if FB Hynoski plays a more active role in the passing game this year to account for somewhat lesser production form TE position.

The other position of great interest to me is the LB group where we seem to have a lot of players. Paysinger and Herzlich are both having very good camps, particularly Herzlich who might beat out Blackburn as the starter at MLB. I can't wait to see them perform during the preseason games.

At RB, Wilson is getting a lot of reps and is showing his speed, but Giants are always very slow to bring rookie RBs along until they show they can pick up blitzes so they keep Eli safe. We'll see. I'd like to see the Giants use Wilson the way the Saints (and Chargers before them) use Sproles. He can't block either, but somehow they get him the ball and burn the defense when they blitz with him in the game. Two words: screen pass. Games start this weekend. Can't wait.

Draft Choices: looking back, looking forward

We often make much of the complexity of analyzing and building an NFL roster and forecasting how the team will do. I will propose a very simple way of forecasting success and it is totally based on looking at the quality of first round draft picks. You can either call it simplistic and stupid or call it brilliantly elegant in its simplicity. Look at the first round draft choices for a team for a few years in a row and the quality of those draft choices will be strong indicators of success of the team for the succeeding 5 of 6 years. It is not a perfect system of course, because it ignores 2nd round picks, FAs, etc, but you'd be surprised how well it works. My contention is that sustained success (i.e. over a 5-6 year period) is only built through the draft. And while you occasionally get a star like Tom Brady in the 6th round or a pro bowler like Justin Tuck in the 4th, best players usually come in the first round.

To draft successfully in that first round, you need to find a player that is a solid starter for your team, once in a while find a star and avoid minor contributors and complete busts. Take a look at the Giants draft choices over the last 30 years or so with the success/lack of success in the several years following those drafts and I think I can prove my case:

In the 1970's Giants drafts were simply awful, drafting nine players from 1970-1978 only 3 of which were legitmate NFL caliber players. Of the 3, only one was a capable starter, Brad Van Pelt who was a very strong player. Consequently, according to my theory, Giants were awful in the '70s. Things turned around in 1979. Beginning in 1979 through 1984, Giants drafted 3 starts in Simms, Taylor and Banks. Of the other 3 players they drafted, only one was a washout, while the other 2, Mark Haynes and Terry Kinard were solid starters. Giants had sustained success from 1985 through 1990 winning their first two Super Bowls and constantly being in contention following this six year period of good drafting.
Beginning in 1985, the drafting started to decline, with Giants getting a few decent players in Mark Ingram, Eric Moore and Rodney Hampton, but 3 poor picks in Brian Williams, Eric Dorsey and George Adams. In the years following the 1990 Super Bowl the team was very up and down. Then in 1991, the first round draft choices declined greatly again. In the 13 years from 1991 through 2003, the Giants had six complete busts: Jarrod Bunch, Derek Brown, Dave Brown, Thomas Lewis, Cedric Jones, Ty Wheatley, Ron Dayne and William Joseph. They had a few decent players in Ike Hilliard, Shaun Williams, Will Allen and Luke Pettigout, with one player that could have been great and never quite reached his potential in Jeremy Shockey. Giants made it to the Super Bowl in 2000 and had some decent years here and there sprinkled in, largely because of later round draft choices (Strahan, Barber, Armstead, Toomer) and a few good FA pickups (Kerry Collins, OL-men right before 2000). But that does not lead to sustained success; it was  good season one year, followed by an awful one the next year, culminating with a 4-12 record in 2003 and the departure of the coach.

Now let's look at what I'll call the "Eli era", where it seems like every year, Giants are getting at worst solid starters and are hitting home runs with some real stars. Since 2004, the draft picks have been: Eli, Webster (2nd round, but first pick for Giants that year because of Eli trade the year before), Kiwanuka, Ross, Phillips, Nicks, JPP, Amukamara. We don't know how Amukamara will turn out, though he is starting to show some talent. But of the 7 picks between 2004 - 2010, Giants had 3 superstars in Eli, Nicks and JPP; 3 superior players in Webster, Kiwanuka and Phillips; and one solid starter in Aaron Ross. Of course, Giants have had two more titles since this 2004 drafting period began and their worst record was 8-8. By my theory, that success was predictable and it bodes well for the Giants fortunes for the next several years.

Jerry Jones

Whenever I try to exercise my well founded, deeply rooted Judaeo-Christian ethic and work at trying to forgive those teams/people that I detest, and try to convince myself that I am really a good person, who is kind and compassionate, with forgiveness in his heart, the teams that I detest just go and do something, well.. detestable... and get me all riled up again. Jerry Jones played the part this time. Actually it's always someone on the Cowboys, because the top ten list of teams that I hate starts with the Cowboys, ends with the Cowboys and has the Cowboys filling the other eight slots on the list.  JJ, owner of the Cowboys and brilliant GM that he is, took the microphone at a Cowboys pep rally, (pep rallies... how lame)  invited everyone to come to Cowboys Stadium and promised that his 'Boys would kick the Giants asses. Giants have won the last 3 games, but they have all been fairly close games, with only the last game of the season decided by as many as 17 points. But come on Jerry, just shut up. At least it shows that he is obsessed with the Giants and it must have really just killed him when Eli beat them in the stadium opener, then again last year coming back from 12 points down in the 4th quarter after knocking them out of the playoffs back in 2007 when they were the #1 seed in the NFC. I don't know if Giants will beat them this year, but it sure would be nice to do so.

Thomas Injury

It's really sad - Thomas had an ACL tear in college. He works hard, rehabs, gets drafted by the Giants, makes the team. Elevates himself to a starter and is in position to rise to the level of all pro last year in his walk year which means a big contract. But he blows out his ACL again in a meaningless preseason game because of an inadvertent collision with his own teammate, no less. Then not only is he deprived his chance at a big contract, he is even denied the chance to participate with his teammates who go all the way and win the title. He spends the entire year rehabbing again. Works his tail off to get back to his high athletic level. Giants, class organization that they are, offer him a contract that is back-loaded, meaning that they don't have big risk if he doesn't make it back, and if he has recovered and returns to a high level of play, the Giants get an appreciative player at a slightly lower price than the going rate for top shelf CBs. By all accounts, he looked strong and was moving fluidly in OTAs and in the first few days of camp. Then, an innocent slip and fall precipitates another ACL injury and Thomas is out again. The second ACL tear was career threatening, but this one is probably the killer. You've got to feel so sorry for him. We non-professional athletes relate to the game as just that - a game. We compare it to our own experiences playing in the schoolyard or in high school or even in college if we were so fortunate to do so and remember the joy and thrill of teamwork, competition and camaraderie with our teammates. If we were out and could not play for a while because of a broken bone or a cold, we would be disappointed at the loss of these enjoyable opportunities. But for professional athletes it's their income. It's their life. He trained his entire life to make a living doing this and now it might be gone. That's why I generally am sympathetic to the player who is trying to hold out for more money. One false step and his career and earning potential is over. I know that when they sign a contract they're supposed to live up to it, but it's hard to take a hard line when you see something like this happen.

Update: Latest news is that it is a partial tear of the ACL. He may get arthroscopic surgery to explore the extent of the damage. I guess we're going to find out what Prince A can bring to the table. CBs in football are like starting pitching in baseball: you can never have enough of them.

Not to get cold and machiavellian about this, but with Thomas' career on hold, Giants will surely not take the option and will not pay the roster bonus due him next March. But that means that there will be some more salary cap room next year and perhaps it means that Giants will reevaluate the Osi situation and make him an offer. Of course, they also have to throw some money at Cruz, Nicks, Tuck and Corey Webster in the next several years, so maybe they save their money for that.