Friday, November 7, 2008

Eagles coming up: glass half full or half empty?

A 7-1 team going to play a 5-3 team.... so how come the 7-1 team is a 3 point underdog and how do we look at this upcoming game? As always there are two ways to look at this contest.

Glass half empty:

It's true the Giants are 7-1 but if you want to be negative, you could say that all of the 7 wins are tainted based on the opposition the Giants have faced. 3 of the wins came against the weak NFC West division, including the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers. One more win came against the Bengals, who are now wallowing at 1-8. It's true that the other 3 wins came against teams that are now above .500 and that made the playoffs last year, but those teams were celarly not at full strength when the Giants played them. Specifically: Redskins were still getting used to the Jim Zorn offense in the season opener; Steelers were injured when Giants played them two weeks ago and were missing their LT, their star RB Willie Parker and their best deep threat at WR, Santonio Holmes. When Giants beat the Cowboys last week, they were missing several players including their star qb Romo, starting CB Newman and their rookie speed RB Felix Jones. This is not the Giants fault, of course, you can only play the teams on your schedule but you know the old football adage - "it's not who you play, it's when you play them". While it doesn't completely discredit the Giants, it does give you the opportunity to question exactly how good they really are.

On the other hand, from the Eagles perspective, they struggled with some close losses early in the year, had some injuries to some key players, particulary Westbrook, but now are healthy and on a roll, having won their last 3 games. They play an aggressive, blitzing defense which can give problems to opposing offenses. In the past, these blitzes were not a big problem for the Giants to handle, because it left Plaxico and other WRs in 1-on-1 coverage. So, if the Giants could pick up the blitzes, they had a chance to make some plays down the field. But, this year, Eagles have upgraded their DB-field with signing of Asante Samuel in the offseason and might be better prepared ot handle 1-on-1 matchups with Giants WRs.

Glass half full:

Giants have looked dominant at times this season against all comers. While it may be true that the Redskins were still getting used to the Jim Zorn offense in week 1, it's hard to believe that in that one additional week of practice between weeks 1 and 2 of the NFL season, magically the Redskins "got it" and were transformed into a team that won 6 of their next 7 including victories on the road against the Cowboys and these very same Eagles. More likely, the Redskins were the same team in week 1 as they were in 6 of next 7 weeks and the Giants were just a better team than they were.

It may be true that the Steelers were slightly shorthanded when the Giants played them, but to beat a tough team in their building with some minor injuries is still a quality win for the Giants. Moreover, Steelers were not missing superstar players and the Giants, without Osi Ueminyora who is gone for the season, were missing a far better player than anyone the Steelers were missing. The fact that the Giants have depth to replace one of the best DE's in football means that they are simply a better team.

Against the Cowboys, the loss of a starting qb is an injury that most teams cannot navigate around. But the Giants didn't just beat the Cowboys, they trampled them. The victory was not gained at the expense of the substitute qb, though of course that helped; rather the win was achieved through complete dominance by the Giants on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Romo doesn't play defense and he was not going to stop the Giants from getting 200 yards rushing. Romo doesn't block at the OL and while he might have eluded some of the rushes, he would have been bothered by that pass rush and would not have been the difference in Cowboys winning that game.

If you want to denigrate the quality of the Giants 7 wins, you can certainly do the same with the Eagles schedule. The Eagles have 5 wins and, like the Giants, 3 have come against NFC West weak sisters Rams, Seahawks and 49ers. This 3 game winning streak that they're on that makes everyone think that they're the hottest team in football this side of Tennessee, have come against the Falcons and two of those NFC West teams. In fact, the only quality win that the Eagles had came against the Steelers; the Falcons are the only other > .500 team that they have beaten. Falcons are a nice story and they are playing fairly well, but they are still probably a year or two away from being a playoff contender. Eagles 3 losses have all been close games: they lost to the Cowboys, lost to the Bears on the strength of a goal line stand by the Bears in the 4th qtr and they lost a close game to the Redskins. A few plays in each of those games and they could be at the top of the division with the Giants, but that's how you win the close games, by making key plays at critical moments. The fact is they did not make those plays and maybe they don't have the playmakers or character to do it.

Playing on Sunday night on a national stage on the road is a tough place to play. Eagles entire season is on the line and the Giants can probably suffer a loss and still have a successful season. The emotion favors the Eagles, by far the more desperate team. I just have a feeling about this game.

No comments: