Sometimes it's more fun going through training camp than the regular season - there's so much speculation on who's going to make the roster, who's going to step up, how are the new draft choices doing and are the Giants going to plug the holes that hurt their team last year. During the season, reading the papers and the various media outlets, it's all about the game. During training camp, you really get to focus on player by player and play GM of your team. There seems to be so much more written on line and in the traditional outlets, that your morning is filled just following everything. It's also funny that each newspaper seems to cling to similar story lines each day - no doubt because they don't really know what they are seeing and they are fed "inside" information from one of the coaches.
Some interesting notes so far are that the Giants seem extremely happy with their draft choices, especially the first three. Pugh has looked very good and has been sharing first team snaps with Diehl. The coaches say he is very smart and has picked up the playbook well. This is important for OL-men, because you have to adjust quickly and switch your assignments when the defense throws a different blitz at you. The concussion he suffered is a setback, but if he gets back onto the field in the next week or so, we can hope that it won't retard his progress badly.
Hankins has been exactly what they expected - a big space eater at DT but has showed better quickness than they thought. The DL coach expects him to be a contributor and in the DL rotation this year. The big find, however has been Damontre Moore who has really wowed everyone with his talent and speed rush capability. He's a little light, so he may not be a 3-down DE and instead be only a situational pass rusher at first. He has a big enough frame to carry a few extra pounds and for the future, could go heavier than the 250 he is now. Moore was known to have first round talent coming out of college but had a reputation as someone who did not work hard. If he has shed that tendency, he could be a real find. If these two DL draftees have an impact their first year, it may mean that some of the veterans don't make the club. It is really crowded on the DL, especially at DT. Shaun Rogers and even FA signee Patterson may be on the bubble. Jenkins, Joseph and Hankins will make the team. Marvin Austin has looked good also (see my report below), so you can validly ask how many DTs will the Giants carry? Kuhn can probably be stashed on PUP through part of the season in case of injury, making it more likely that one of the veterans will be cut.
I went to Giants training camp on Friday August 2nd and have the following personal report:
1. Prince Amukamara looks like he is ready to step up into the 'shut down' CB status. He is fast, looks very tough and has great instincts and technique. Even when the offense completed some balls against his man, he was right on top of the play and tightly contested the catch.
2. Reuben Randle continued his strong camp and looks like he will be an important player for the Giants this year. I am not sure he is a pure speed burner - in fact Manningham, the guy he is essentially replacing, may have been a bit faster in terms of pure foot speed. But Randle just looks like a great football player. He runs effortlessly with a long stride that makes it seem like he is not working, has great body control and deceptive speed. He can jump really well and has excellent hands.
3. David Wilson at RB also looks like he is ready for a big year. When he gets going nobody can stay with him. On one kickoff return drill, which was admittedly run at 3/4 speed, he just exploded down the sideline. He looks like the car in 'Back to the Future', powered by lightning and when he gets going, there are streaks of light as trails behind him.
4. It's hard to scout OL/DL at practice because they're not really banging hard, and there is a mass of bodies to try and look through from the sideline. But I will say that Marvin Austin looked lightning quick and Tuck looks like he's in great shape - not an ounce of body fat on his frame. In the front 7, the other player that looks extremely impressive to me is Jacquian Williams. I will admit that I always liked him - he reminds me of a slightly smaller Jesse Armstead, but he is extremely athletic and in a passing league, could be a great asset covering TEs from the LB position and running down read-option QBs.
5. Only big negative that I observed was Myers, the TE Giants signed from Oakland. He looked smallish, did not look fast and dropped 2 or 3 balls. He did not seem to get any separation on his routes, though everything he ran was short and intermediate stuff in the middle of the field. On the other hand, Andre Robinson the TE the Giants drafted last year from Cincinnati looked great. He is an imposing physical specimen, can run impressively especially for a man of that size and has very soft hands. He has a really high ceiling - I hope he makes it onto the field with some regularity this year. With his size, if he can learn the proper blocking techniques and assignments, he can be a strong player at that position.
One more note - I mentioned "soft hands" above and I have a new appreciation for what that means, which came from observing practice. In the NFL, everyone catches the ball with their hands, not against their body. It gives the WR an extra fraction of a second to secure the ball before he gets hit by a defender, instead of waiting until the ball (and defender) reaches him. Sitting next to the practice field, with the velocity that the QBs put on the ball, when the WRs catch the ball, you hear a loud slap when the ball comes in contact with their hands. The players with really soft hands have the ability to move their hands back just an inch or two and cradle the ball gently as it hits their outstretched hands. You can't really see a player do that, but you can hear it; or actually, you can't hear it. When the ball hit the hands of most of the WRs, you hear that loud slap. When the ball hit Robinson's hands, you heard nothing, just a soft thud. Since the collision between ball and hands is less "violent" the force of ball against hand is lessened, some of the energy is dissipated and there is less of a chance of drop. For students of physics, it is the difference between a ball hitting a concrete wall or hitting a pillow and the energy that the ball may have when rebounding off those surfaces. Robinson showed these soft, quiet hands.
Tuesday, August 6, 2013
Thursday, July 18, 2013
Tiki (BOOOOOOOOOOO)
ESPN is always making top 10 lists. Top 10 QBs, top 10 comebacks, top 10 playoff collapses, etc. I saw a hilarious one the other day: top 10 QBs that emerged as stars after sitting on the bench behind another established starter for a long time. Man, they were really reaching for a show when they came up with that list. (Maybe that was NFL network instead of ESPN, I forget, they're both reaching for content all the time and come up with inane premises for a segment of a show). Anyway, if they ever have a top 10 list for: Former players who blew their chance at a post-retirement media career by ticking off his old teammates and then doing everything he can to kiss a$$ and get in his former team's good graces (wow... quite a category) then Tiki Barber occupies slots 1 through 10.
ESPN is always making top 10 lists. Top 10 QBs, top 10 comebacks, top 10 playoff collapses, etc. I saw a hilarious one the other day: top 10 QBs that emerged as stars after sitting on the bench behind another established starter for a long time. Man, they were really reaching for a show when they came up with that list. (Maybe that was NFL network instead of ESPN, I forget, they're both reaching for content all the time and come up with inane premises for a segment of a show). Anyway, if they ever have a top 10 list for: Former players who blew their chance at a post-retirement media career by ticking off his old teammates and then doing everything he can to kiss a$$ and get in his former team's good graces (wow... quite a category) then Tiki Barber occupies slots 1 through 10.
He famously fumbled his first opportunity by not being a good interviewer and further ticked everyone in NY off (NYC=media capital of the world, in case you're making a top 10 media cities in the world list) by dissing and dumping on his ex-QB. You know... the QB that was such a bad leader (in Tiki's opinion) that he led his team to SB wins on the strength of two incredible 4th quarter comebacks. In the 2008 Super Bowl, Eli threw for 2 TDs and 150 yards passing in the 4th qtr, something only Joe Montana has done, so I think Tiki kind of missed the mark on his whole "Eli is not a good leader" thing. Tiki also didn't get a lot of good press when he dumped his wife when she was 9 months pregnant with twins in favor of a young office intern at NBC (whom he met when he still had a job there). People don't judge morality, but that was low even by Spitzer / Weiner standards.
Anyway - in a blatant, transparent attempt to resurrect his TV/radio career and curry favor in the eyes of the NY fan base, which he hopes will make him more attractive to a NY TV station looking to hire someone, he came out with the following statement. It requires no explanation:
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Let's start to get serious about the season
I must admit that taking 4 months off from issuing new posts is not exactly how I'm going to build a growing, dedicated following on this blog. Certainly the draft and FA activity provided lots of grist for the mill that I could have written about, but that is water under the bridge now and the advent of July when teams get back to training camp has inspired me to get going again.
You can never tell how a draft will work out, but on the surface the Giants seemed to have added some good talent this year. Coming into the draft, the areas of need on the team seemed to be OL, LB and DB. Giants stayed true to their mantra of "never bring your depth chart into the draft room" and did not reach for a pick at a particular position because of need. More than that, they traded up to obtain Nassib, a player at a position that is most definitely NOT one of need. I think there are some quality players the Giants picked up in Hankins at DT and Moore at DE. I am particularly eager to see what Cooper Taylor will be like - he has great size, 4.45 speed and could be a real interesting player at S. Fewell likes the 3-S look and he and Will Hill have the size to make that work. To stop the running QBs, you need size and speed at DB and they may provide it. But the draft of course will turn on whether Pugh turns out to be a player. He's tough, he's smart, he's experienced, he can play either RT or LT, so on the surface Pugh seems like a good pick, notwithstanding the fact that his arms are an inch shorter than the draft experts think they should be. If he turns out to be a very good player, Giants will be set with bookend OTs for the next 5-7 years. 2nd and 3rd round picks Moore and Hankins were each at one time judged to be first round talent who both slid in the draft for one reason or another. Moore could be a bust, but if he gets his head together and works hard, he could be the steal of the draft.
The FA maneuvering was interesting - resigning Keith Rivers, taking a flyer on Aaron Curry at LB, resigning Aaron Ross and cutting salaries of some of their own players that were on the bubble - Diehl and Webster, in particular. The Giants strategy on defense is apparently to sign a bunch of huge DTs and DEs to improve the run defense and get enough talent at DB and LB that someone will emerge and play good football. Giants also resigned Terrell Thomas at DB so at CB they have: Webster, Amukamara, Hosley, Ross, Thomas and some others behind them for depth. Webster had a bad year last year, but he has played good football in the past and I don't think he's done. Same is true for Aaron Ross. (I have to point out that in the last two Giants titles, Webster and Ross started every game at CB for the entire season and playoffs). One of these players has to find his legs and play opposite Prince.
The Giants roster seems loaded with DTs, too many to carry onto the final active roster. In my judgment, there will be some decent players that will get cut. Giants have Shaun Rogers, Marvin Austin, Linval Joseph, new FA signees Cullen Jenkins and MikePatterson as well as draftee Jonathan Hankins. They also list last year's rookie Markus Kuhn as DT, though he played some DE last year. Excluding Kuhn, that's 6 DTs and they clearly won't carry that many into the season. I guess competition is good, but if Hankins shows something, my guess is that Rogers and maybe Austin will not make the final roster. Austin has been a real disappointment. He came in with such high expectations but has never showed the coaches enough to get on the field.
The deal the Giants made with Cruz was perfect for both sides. Cruz got more money than any slot receiver in football, but had to compromise and did not get Mike Wallace money. Giants, on the other hand, while they gave more money to Cruz than either Welker or Amendola got, managed to tack the contract onto the back of the tender offer that Cruz had already signed. That has the effect of giving the Giants control of Cruz for one more year and lowering the average cost of the contract overall. They also pushed the big salary hit to 2015 when it is expected that the new TV deal kicks in. Consequently, the salary cap numbers will rise for every team, making it easier for Giants to absorb these cap numbers. The big question is what this means for Nicks..... more on that in later posts.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Offseason intrigue
The team I was most worried about making a play for Victor Cruz was the Patriots. They have the cap room, especially after Brady redid his deal. They showed disenchantment with Welker by franchising him last year instead of making a long term deal with him. They also did not play him at the beginning of the year and put him in the lineup only when they absolutely had to because of injuries. Further, they constructed their spread offense that gets great productivity out of that slot receiver, so there was a need. The first round draft choice that they would be giving up would be in the back of the first round because of Patriots finish last year, so there was also less value for them to lose by signing Cruz. So as they say on Law and Order, there was motive and opportunity. Now, however, the threat of Patriots making a run at Cruz seems past. They actualized their dissatisfaction with Welker by letting him walk and sign with the Broncos, but they immediately signed a replacement in Amendola. I guess their logic was: if they think Amendola can be as productive (or nearly as productive) as Cruz in that slot position, why not sign him instead of Cruz and save the 1st round draft choice. It took them about five minutes to announce the deal with Amendola, so you have to believe that they had already come to an agreement and were just waiting to close the books on Welker before signing Amendola. Now that they have their slot receiver, they won't go after Cruz.
The Rams, who lost Amendola could theoretically be in the market for Cruz. They have two first round draft choices, slots 16 and 26. They finished strong last year - improving to 7-8-1 and in a strong division might feel that they need to add talent to keep up with 9ers and Seahawks. The obstacle for them is that they came into the offseason in a slightly worse salary cap situation than the Giants did. Cruz is not the missing piece that can lift them up over their division rivals. They would be smarter to keep their draft choices in a draft that is QB-poor but WR and OT-rich, so they could do very well in the draft with their 2 first rounders. They could get talent at positions of need and would not hamstring their salary cap structure for years to come. Furthermore, if they are in roughly the same salary cap position as the Giants, or slightly worse, there is no offer that they could make that the Giants could not match. Rams could still make a run at him, but I doubt it. With the extra emphasis and value assigned to draft choices because of the rookie salary structure in the new CBA, teams are very reluctant to part with those draft choices, especially in the 1st round.
Another team that may pose a risk is the Vikings. They were a playoff team last year, so they may be looking to add that one weapon to put them over the top. They just traded their most dynamic threat in Percy Harvin and therefore may be looking to replace him. They have cap room, because they too have a young (cheap) QB that is not absorbing cap dollars. But like the Rams, they also got extra draft picks in the trade, including a first rounder, so they may want to sit tight, use their draft picks and set themselves up to be competitive for the next several years without worrying about cap problems in the future. We'll see about the Vikings.
As more time passes, it becomes less likely that Cruz will get an offer. You could imagine a scenario where a team is counting on the draft to fill their WR needs, doesn't come away with the player they wanted and then in desperation makes a run at Cruz. However, there's no need to worry about that scenario, because the RFA signing period is March 12 - April 19 and the draft is after that, on April 25. A really sly team might wait until the last possible moment and make an offer to Cruz on April 19. The Giants would have five days to match the offer and the offering team might hope that the Giants salary cap structure would have become too rigid at that point. Further, that the team does not have the focus to deal with contract negotiations because they are cosnumed with draft preparation. It's unlikely, but it is at least possible.
The interesting thing about the Amendola, Welker and Cruz situations is that they all combined to give an idea of what the market is for slot receivers in the NFL. Welker and Amendola, two of the best at their position, got about $6M per year. Giants probably offered a similar package to Cruz, but he wanted to be paid like the very best WRs in the game, the big outside guys and pull in 10 or 12 M per year. The market has now been set and it shows that the Giants were smart not to overpay for Cruz. If some other team comes in and offers Cruz $6M or so, Giants will probably match - Cruz still has some leverage. But if the April 19 date passes and Cruz still has only the tender offer from the Giants, the team then has the leverage. The best scenario for the Giants might be to make a long term deal with Cruz after the draft. He will get paid $2.8 this year and if he injures his knee in week 15 of the regular season, he's damaged goods and won't get a good offer in 2014. So Giants could offer him a "middle" package that gives Cruz more than the 2.8 he would have earned in 2013, but a little less than full market value that a UFA might get.
If you're interested in where Cruz stands among all WRs in the last 2 years, see below. Ranking is based on receiving yards for 2011-2012 seasons.
The Rams, who lost Amendola could theoretically be in the market for Cruz. They have two first round draft choices, slots 16 and 26. They finished strong last year - improving to 7-8-1 and in a strong division might feel that they need to add talent to keep up with 9ers and Seahawks. The obstacle for them is that they came into the offseason in a slightly worse salary cap situation than the Giants did. Cruz is not the missing piece that can lift them up over their division rivals. They would be smarter to keep their draft choices in a draft that is QB-poor but WR and OT-rich, so they could do very well in the draft with their 2 first rounders. They could get talent at positions of need and would not hamstring their salary cap structure for years to come. Furthermore, if they are in roughly the same salary cap position as the Giants, or slightly worse, there is no offer that they could make that the Giants could not match. Rams could still make a run at him, but I doubt it. With the extra emphasis and value assigned to draft choices because of the rookie salary structure in the new CBA, teams are very reluctant to part with those draft choices, especially in the 1st round.
Another team that may pose a risk is the Vikings. They were a playoff team last year, so they may be looking to add that one weapon to put them over the top. They just traded their most dynamic threat in Percy Harvin and therefore may be looking to replace him. They have cap room, because they too have a young (cheap) QB that is not absorbing cap dollars. But like the Rams, they also got extra draft picks in the trade, including a first rounder, so they may want to sit tight, use their draft picks and set themselves up to be competitive for the next several years without worrying about cap problems in the future. We'll see about the Vikings.
As more time passes, it becomes less likely that Cruz will get an offer. You could imagine a scenario where a team is counting on the draft to fill their WR needs, doesn't come away with the player they wanted and then in desperation makes a run at Cruz. However, there's no need to worry about that scenario, because the RFA signing period is March 12 - April 19 and the draft is after that, on April 25. A really sly team might wait until the last possible moment and make an offer to Cruz on April 19. The Giants would have five days to match the offer and the offering team might hope that the Giants salary cap structure would have become too rigid at that point. Further, that the team does not have the focus to deal with contract negotiations because they are cosnumed with draft preparation. It's unlikely, but it is at least possible.
The interesting thing about the Amendola, Welker and Cruz situations is that they all combined to give an idea of what the market is for slot receivers in the NFL. Welker and Amendola, two of the best at their position, got about $6M per year. Giants probably offered a similar package to Cruz, but he wanted to be paid like the very best WRs in the game, the big outside guys and pull in 10 or 12 M per year. The market has now been set and it shows that the Giants were smart not to overpay for Cruz. If some other team comes in and offers Cruz $6M or so, Giants will probably match - Cruz still has some leverage. But if the April 19 date passes and Cruz still has only the tender offer from the Giants, the team then has the leverage. The best scenario for the Giants might be to make a long term deal with Cruz after the draft. He will get paid $2.8 this year and if he injures his knee in week 15 of the regular season, he's damaged goods and won't get a good offer in 2014. So Giants could offer him a "middle" package that gives Cruz more than the 2.8 he would have earned in 2013, but a little less than full market value that a UFA might get.
If you're interested in where Cruz stands among all WRs in the last 2 years, see below. Ranking is based on receiving yards for 2011-2012 seasons.
| Receiving | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | From | To | Tm | Rec | Yds | TD | ||
| 1 | Calvin Johnson | 2011 | 2012 | DET | 218 | 3645 | 16.72 | 21 | 113.9 |
| 2 | Wes Welker | 2011 | 2012 | NWE | 240 | 2923 | 12.18 | 15 | 91.3 |
| 3 | Brandon Marshall | 2011 | 2012 | TOT | 199 | 2722 | 13.68 | 17 | 85.1 |
| 4 | Roddy White | 2011 | 2012 | ATL | 192 | 2647 | 13.79 | 15 | 82.7 |
| 5 | Victor Cruz | 2011 | 2012 | NYG | 168 | 2628 | 15.64 | 19 | 82.1 |
| 6 | Steve Smith | 2011 | 2012 | CAR | 152 | 2568 | 16.89 | 11 | 80.3 |
| 7 | Vincent Jackson | 2011 | 2012 | TOT | 132 | 2490 | 18.86 | 17 | 77.8 |
| 8 | A.J. Green | 2011 | 2012 | CIN | 162 | 2407 | 14.86 | 18 | 77.6 |
| 9 | Reggie Wayne | 2011 | 2012 | CLT | 181 | 2315 | 12.79 | 9 | 72.3 |
| 10 | Dez Bryant | 2011 | 2012 | DAL | 155 | 2310 | 14.90 | 21 | 74.5 |
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
How did Giants get into this "mess"?
Following post is compilation of email discussion with my friend Ray:
The concerns:
After cutting Webster's salary and restructuring Baas, it sounds like Giants were about $10 mil below the cap. After adding the money to sign Cullen Jenkins, it may be yet a bit less. Though in reality, the 2013 hit for Jenkins is probably small: he got a $2M signing bonus which is spread over 3 years and probably modest 2013 salary. Sounds reasonable, but:
1- Giants tendered Cruz, A. Brown and S. Brown for a total of about $7M. If they get an offer from another team, it could drive it up even more. Now that Vikings have traded Harvin and they have a lot of cap space, they could make a play for Cruz.
2-Later this year Giants will need $4-5 mil in cap space to sign draft class.
3-Giants are letting Bennett and Phillips go on the market. To retain them would require more money. You have to assume that Phillips will go, especially since they tendered S Brown, but it's not clear that they have the talent on the roster to replace Bennett (wouldn't it have been nice if Adrien Robinson got on the field last year?)
4-There is no room for any but the cheapest free agents, without much more cap work.
How did we get into this mess?
The approach:
The concerns:
After cutting Webster's salary and restructuring Baas, it sounds like Giants were about $10 mil below the cap. After adding the money to sign Cullen Jenkins, it may be yet a bit less. Though in reality, the 2013 hit for Jenkins is probably small: he got a $2M signing bonus which is spread over 3 years and probably modest 2013 salary. Sounds reasonable, but:
1- Giants tendered Cruz, A. Brown and S. Brown for a total of about $7M. If they get an offer from another team, it could drive it up even more. Now that Vikings have traded Harvin and they have a lot of cap space, they could make a play for Cruz.
2-Later this year Giants will need $4-5 mil in cap space to sign draft class.
3-Giants are letting Bennett and Phillips go on the market. To retain them would require more money. You have to assume that Phillips will go, especially since they tendered S Brown, but it's not clear that they have the talent on the roster to replace Bennett (wouldn't it have been nice if Adrien Robinson got on the field last year?)
4-There is no room for any but the cheapest free agents, without much more cap work.
How did we get into this mess?
The approach:
I think every team that has a big cap commitment to a franchise qb is in the same mess that the Giants are in. In the last CBA, the salary cap kept climbing every year, so teams signed players with a signing bonus, but little up front salary and the larger salary on the back end. They assumed that they would either be able to afford the player later because of rising cap numbers or would cut him if his performance was not up to par with the salary. The new CBA seems to me like it is greatly in favor of owners, taking a lot of sources of income out of the defined revenue pool that comprises the salary cap. The cap now is actually less than it was in 2009, the last capped year of the previous CBA (remember 2010 was uncapped year). So teams that are suffering are those that had long term cap commitments to key players, expecting the cap to rise, as well as stupid teams like the Jets who pay big money to old/ bad players. The major commitment (if you know what you are doing) a GM will make is to a franchise qb. Eli has the highest cap hit of any qb, so that is part of Giants problem. Note that Ravens signed Flacco and dumped Bouldin the next week because of being short on cap space (also because Bouldin was aging).
As far as Cruz, I think it may not end well for Giants; and the Vikings are indeed a logical choice to do the damage and pick up Cruz. They have cap space, they just got rid of their star Harvin and have a hole to fill. They also have a young QB that does not take a lot of cap space so they won't get into trouble for another 3-4 years. However, if Vikings don't make a play for him, I'm not sure there will be too many other suitors. You need to be a team that: (1) is a player/weapon away from contending for SB (2) have cap space (3) are willing to make a commitment to a slot receiver that is comparable to what an outside WR would get (4) are willing to overpay Cruz because if they offer him just a "reasonable" contract, Giants will match it.
Don't get me wrong: I love Cruz; and Bennet showed the Giants something last year also. But let's remember: Eli is the key. The last two SBs that the Giants won, they had Kevin Boss and Jake Ballard as TEs, not exactly a pair that is going to make anyone forget Mark Bavaro anytime soon. In 2007, Giants had Steve Smith in the slot, who was a very nice player, but in retrospect, he was made to look much better than he really was by the QB. Smith broke the Giants franchise record for catches by a WR, since broken by Cruz. My point being: Giants need a good player in that slot, and Cruz is one of the top 3 players at that position, but it is Nicks and Eli that make this offense tick. I would like to keep Cruz, but it won't kill the Giants if they don't. Maybe Jernigan can actually get on the field this year and we can see if he can play.
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Nicks and Cruz
What to do at the WR position? Victor Cruz finished a 3 year contract with the Giants and as such is an RFA. He has been very productive the last two years and has made noise about wanting a contract that puts him up there with the top 5 WRs in football. Nicks is in the last year of his rookie contract and will be UFA at the end of the 2013 season. Watching the Giants offense struggle this year when Nicks was so hampered by injury, it became most clear that Nicks is the player that really makes the Giants passing offense percolate (aside from # 10 of course). Cruz had a very good year, but defenses were able to stop him or at least control him when they could pay a little more attention to him with Nicks not the threat on the outside he usually is.
So - who should the Giants prioritize? In a perfect world, they would sign both of them, and I am sure they are trying to do that. But in the salary cap era, it may not be possible to sign both, so theoretically, Giants might have to pick just one.
Here are the arguments on both sides:
Nicks is the real star, he is the bigger threat. He can catch the ball in traffic and has the speed and size to play on the outside, which is the "big boy's" position among the WRs. Nicks can be productive without Cruz, but Cruz was much less productive without Nicks. That argues, of course for signing Nicks as a priority and doing the best to retain Cruz, but ultimately letting him go if they have to.
The flip side is this: While Nicks is the better player and the more complete threat, dangerous players at his position come into the league every year and it might be easier to replace him with another at least approximating his ability. In fact, they may already have a player on the roster in Reuben Randle that can be an excellent threat on the outside. Conversely, while it is true that Cruz may need the protection of a partner on the outside who can open up the field, he is the most dangerous slot receiver in football and that position is very difficult to replace.
The other factor to consider in these plans is how the salary cap will move in the next few years. That influences how much money teams have to offer the FAs and how much competition the Giants would have for these player's services. A new TV deal starts in 2014 but most people seem to think that the cap will not increase much until 2015 when there will be a modest bump of about 2-3% and a more significant bump in 2016. This means that FAs this year and next year will not get massive deals offered to them because teams just don't have a lot of money to spend.
Therefore the best plan for the Giants would be:
1. Extend Nicks contract now. Giants would probably get a better deal for him since he is getting the security of signing before his contract is up. Joe Flacco rolled the dice played out the last year of his contract and seemed to have won his gamble. But what if Flacco had injured his shoulder during the season? Nicks might be happy to sign now at a cap friendly deal and lock in security.
2. Tender a contract to RFA Cruz which gives them a 1st round draft choice if someone signs him. If another team offers him a manageable contract, match it. If the deal has a poison pill in it, let Cruz leave. If Cruz stays under the tendered deal, sign him next year when even more teams will be in salary cap hell with the cap being flat for a 3rd straight year and the Giants might have less competition for his services.
3. (Nothing to do with cap) Get Jernigan some playing time and find out if he can be a good slot receiver in the NFL.
So - who should the Giants prioritize? In a perfect world, they would sign both of them, and I am sure they are trying to do that. But in the salary cap era, it may not be possible to sign both, so theoretically, Giants might have to pick just one.
Here are the arguments on both sides:
Nicks is the real star, he is the bigger threat. He can catch the ball in traffic and has the speed and size to play on the outside, which is the "big boy's" position among the WRs. Nicks can be productive without Cruz, but Cruz was much less productive without Nicks. That argues, of course for signing Nicks as a priority and doing the best to retain Cruz, but ultimately letting him go if they have to.
The flip side is this: While Nicks is the better player and the more complete threat, dangerous players at his position come into the league every year and it might be easier to replace him with another at least approximating his ability. In fact, they may already have a player on the roster in Reuben Randle that can be an excellent threat on the outside. Conversely, while it is true that Cruz may need the protection of a partner on the outside who can open up the field, he is the most dangerous slot receiver in football and that position is very difficult to replace.
The other factor to consider in these plans is how the salary cap will move in the next few years. That influences how much money teams have to offer the FAs and how much competition the Giants would have for these player's services. A new TV deal starts in 2014 but most people seem to think that the cap will not increase much until 2015 when there will be a modest bump of about 2-3% and a more significant bump in 2016. This means that FAs this year and next year will not get massive deals offered to them because teams just don't have a lot of money to spend.
Therefore the best plan for the Giants would be:
1. Extend Nicks contract now. Giants would probably get a better deal for him since he is getting the security of signing before his contract is up. Joe Flacco rolled the dice played out the last year of his contract and seemed to have won his gamble. But what if Flacco had injured his shoulder during the season? Nicks might be happy to sign now at a cap friendly deal and lock in security.
2. Tender a contract to RFA Cruz which gives them a 1st round draft choice if someone signs him. If another team offers him a manageable contract, match it. If the deal has a poison pill in it, let Cruz leave. If Cruz stays under the tendered deal, sign him next year when even more teams will be in salary cap hell with the cap being flat for a 3rd straight year and the Giants might have less competition for his services.
3. (Nothing to do with cap) Get Jernigan some playing time and find out if he can be a good slot receiver in the NFL.
Salary Cap Cuts
I once heard Jerry Reese say when he was talking about roster construction "you have to be careful not to fall in love with your own players". He is sure living up to that mantra this off season cutting three players that had important roles contributing to the Super Bowl a year ago, and one of them, Bradshaw, contributing also to the previous one in 2007. He did the same thing a few years ago when he let Kevin Boss walk at TE and did not match the offer by the Raiders. Though I didn't agree with exactly the way he managed the process, making an offer to Boss and letting him shop it all over the league, but it turned out to be the right move to let him walk. We'll see how these cuts work out - it's hard to argue with any of them. All three players were very good NFL starters and have had good careers. But Boley and Canty have seen their production and playing time decline over the last year and have suffered through the types of injuries which seem to indicate wear and tear, perhaps indicating that there is not much tread left on the tire. It's better to get rid of a player a year too early than a year too late especially when you're constricted by the salary cap and have to throw some money at your own FAs.
Bradshaw, while he was probably the best of the three players cut may have been the easiest decision because of the depth currently on the roster at his position. Wilson and Brown (RFA whose contract can be controlled) are there to fill the void. At DT Giants have only Linval Joseph as a good player who is locked in. Marvin Austin looks like a bust, Rocky Bernard is also a FA so Giants will have to add some DL strength. The LBs were weak last year, and cutting Boley leaves a group with Paysinger, Williams, Blackburn and Herzlich that need to be upgraded. Rivers is also in the group but he is a FA also.
It's almost a given that Osi will not be resigned and Kiwanuka will move to DE. Unless - could the Giants plan something radical like moving Tuck permanently inside to DT and resigning Osi as the 3-DE rotation with Kiwanuka and JPP? Unlikely.
The flip side of not falling in love with your own players and not overpaying to keep them is that sometimes you underrate your own players also. A year ago the Giants let Manningham walk. It was no doubt based largely on salary cap but also on the fact that we saw Manningham running the wrong routes one too many times causing throws by Eli to go into empty space on the field. When the player is on your team, you see him up close, warts and all and sometimes dismiss the good. I am not saying it was a bad decision to let Mario walk, but looking at Giants struggles in the passing game this year with Nicks hurt, it might have been nice to have Manningham.
IMO, Giants are not done cutting. These cuts saved them about 14-15M and they are now about 3 or 4 M under the cap, depending whose numbers you believe. There are some of their own players that they need to throw some money at and make some decisions upon the most prominent of which are: Nicks, Cruz and Beatty.
I think Webster may not survive. Diehl will probably go, but not until they resign Beatty. Giants will not keep both Phillips and Stevie Brown who are FAs. I suspect they will let Phillips go, even though he is a very good player, because of his injury history. If Brown is too expensive they may let him walk also. It's possible that Will Hill will be an important player for Giants next year as a S who can run and also hit, and can be useful defensing the running QB trend in the league.
Giants may try to restructure Rolle who is getting paid a lot of money.
Cutting these three players also may move Coughlin off of his unwritten-but-seldom-violated rule of not playing rookies until game 10 or 12 of his rookie season. If Giants cut more veterans, he will have no choice.
Bradshaw, while he was probably the best of the three players cut may have been the easiest decision because of the depth currently on the roster at his position. Wilson and Brown (RFA whose contract can be controlled) are there to fill the void. At DT Giants have only Linval Joseph as a good player who is locked in. Marvin Austin looks like a bust, Rocky Bernard is also a FA so Giants will have to add some DL strength. The LBs were weak last year, and cutting Boley leaves a group with Paysinger, Williams, Blackburn and Herzlich that need to be upgraded. Rivers is also in the group but he is a FA also.
It's almost a given that Osi will not be resigned and Kiwanuka will move to DE. Unless - could the Giants plan something radical like moving Tuck permanently inside to DT and resigning Osi as the 3-DE rotation with Kiwanuka and JPP? Unlikely.
The flip side of not falling in love with your own players and not overpaying to keep them is that sometimes you underrate your own players also. A year ago the Giants let Manningham walk. It was no doubt based largely on salary cap but also on the fact that we saw Manningham running the wrong routes one too many times causing throws by Eli to go into empty space on the field. When the player is on your team, you see him up close, warts and all and sometimes dismiss the good. I am not saying it was a bad decision to let Mario walk, but looking at Giants struggles in the passing game this year with Nicks hurt, it might have been nice to have Manningham.
IMO, Giants are not done cutting. These cuts saved them about 14-15M and they are now about 3 or 4 M under the cap, depending whose numbers you believe. There are some of their own players that they need to throw some money at and make some decisions upon the most prominent of which are: Nicks, Cruz and Beatty.
I think Webster may not survive. Diehl will probably go, but not until they resign Beatty. Giants will not keep both Phillips and Stevie Brown who are FAs. I suspect they will let Phillips go, even though he is a very good player, because of his injury history. If Brown is too expensive they may let him walk also. It's possible that Will Hill will be an important player for Giants next year as a S who can run and also hit, and can be useful defensing the running QB trend in the league.
Giants may try to restructure Rolle who is getting paid a lot of money.
Cutting these three players also may move Coughlin off of his unwritten-but-seldom-violated rule of not playing rookies until game 10 or 12 of his rookie season. If Giants cut more veterans, he will have no choice.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)