Last night the NFL Network replayed the regular season game between Giants and 49ers and I took a peak. Somehow my recollection of the game was that the 9ers beat the Giants pretty badly and the Giants had a last gasp chance to tie the score. After watching the game again last night, with a sense of detached analysis rather than being emotional watching when the game was played live, my impression is quite the contrary. Giants moved the ball well against the 49ers and failed a few times in the red zone against the 49ers tough red zone defense. They gave away two second half 49er TDs when Weatherford hit his only bad punt of the year giving 49ers great field position. They scored their second TD when Eli threw an INT as a result of Manningham cuttingoff his route with the ball going right to the DB. Boley was injured right before both of those 49ers possessions and replacement rookie Greg Jones blew his assignment on both 49ers TDs. The first was pass to TE Davis and the other a run by Kendall. That was it. Those two plays were the entire 49ers second half offense. Giants marched down the field and got a TD to get them within 7 and marched down again with a chance to tie the game, but failed on 4th down from the 10. Give the 49ers credit because they did make some big plays. but it is also true that the Giants beat the 49ers at the line of scrimmage. If the Giants play a clean, tight game, limiting big mistakes and turnovers, they have a chance.
I think Harbaugh is a dangerous coach and he could pull some real tricks out of his bag. He may decide to play nickel all game to try and stop the Giants passing game, almost daring the Giants to run. He may feel that his LBs are so good that the defense can stop Giants running game even if they get away from their 3-4 strength, playing an extra DB instead of 4 LBs. Giants are going to have to pass the ball to win the game, even though they did run the ball fairly well against the 9ers in that first game. Ballard (Pacoe/Beckum) may become key players if the 49ers do this, finding holes in their zone coverage.
On defense, Giants do not use that much deception, so playing strong at the point of attack and not over-committing to stop the run is what got the Giants here and it will have to be what gets them through this game also.
Showing posts with label 2011 49ers preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 49ers preview. Show all posts
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Giants: NFC Championship game - Last Thoughts
Everyone agrees - all the experts, the analysts, the geniuses on NFL Network that this is a very evenly matched game. The 49ers are a very complete team, well coached, great defense, QB that is coming into his own and with their home field advantage, they are favored by a few points. But it is interesting to rewind the clock and set it back just a week, as we were coming into the Packers game and see how the wind was blowing then. Everyone agreed that the top seeded Packers were the best team in the NFC and most likely in the entire league. They were unanimously at the top of everyone's Power Ranking list and were deemed virtually unbeatable. They had the consensus league MVP in Aaron Rodgers, the best player in the league at the most important position on the field, had a host of elite skill position players around him that made their offense unstoppable, were well coached and were playing at home. It is true that the one chink in their armor was a weak defense, but even that was disregarded because despite the yardage they gave up, they did get a lot of turnovers and were opportunistic. In general, they seemed like a lock to go to the Super Bowl, the only thing they might have been missing was a prophesy from the Oracle of Delphi predicting their victory. So with all of that going for them, wouldn't you think that the team that knocked them out of the playoffs so convincingly would get props for doing so and get some consideration for being the "new" best team.
Apparently, that's not how it works. When a team loses, even a 15-1 team like the Packers, suddenly instead of throwing bouquets at the team that beat them, we reevaluate and discover all of their warts. Now, in retrospect, we say: the Packers are a one dimensional team, with a terrible defense, with an offense that is driven only by its big strike passing game but does not have it balanced with a good running game. Even their passing game, the strength of their team is suddenly exposed because they have diminutive WRs that can be pushed out of their comfort zone if you are physical with them at the line of scrimmage. On top of that, instead of calling them well coached, we are finding all of the mistakes the coaching staff made during this game. So, now the take is that - instead of knocking off the 15-1, top seeded, best team in the NFL, the Giants beat a flawed team, that any decent team should have beaten and they needed a lucky Hail Mary at the end of the half to do it.
The truth is probably somewhere in between - Rodgers is a great player and the Packers rode his back to that 15-1 record. But the Giants are a much better team than they showed during those first 14 games of the regular season and should be given some credit for that.
With all that said, the 49ers are a solid team and have to be given some props for knocking off the high powered Saints. But a simple analysis might be - Giants have a stronger passing game and offense, and if the Giants defense of the last few weeks shows up, they should be able to give a representative showing against the less explosive 49ers offense. I've been saying all along that weather could be a factor because it limits the effectiveness of offenses and could undercut the Giants advantage there. If it becomes a low scoring, field position struggle, special teams could become a factor and the 49ers have an advantage there.
Apparently, that's not how it works. When a team loses, even a 15-1 team like the Packers, suddenly instead of throwing bouquets at the team that beat them, we reevaluate and discover all of their warts. Now, in retrospect, we say: the Packers are a one dimensional team, with a terrible defense, with an offense that is driven only by its big strike passing game but does not have it balanced with a good running game. Even their passing game, the strength of their team is suddenly exposed because they have diminutive WRs that can be pushed out of their comfort zone if you are physical with them at the line of scrimmage. On top of that, instead of calling them well coached, we are finding all of the mistakes the coaching staff made during this game. So, now the take is that - instead of knocking off the 15-1, top seeded, best team in the NFL, the Giants beat a flawed team, that any decent team should have beaten and they needed a lucky Hail Mary at the end of the half to do it.
The truth is probably somewhere in between - Rodgers is a great player and the Packers rode his back to that 15-1 record. But the Giants are a much better team than they showed during those first 14 games of the regular season and should be given some credit for that.
With all that said, the 49ers are a solid team and have to be given some props for knocking off the high powered Saints. But a simple analysis might be - Giants have a stronger passing game and offense, and if the Giants defense of the last few weeks shows up, they should be able to give a representative showing against the less explosive 49ers offense. I've been saying all along that weather could be a factor because it limits the effectiveness of offenses and could undercut the Giants advantage there. If it becomes a low scoring, field position struggle, special teams could become a factor and the 49ers have an advantage there.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Giants: NFC Championship game week
Formulating a game plan is not just about the OC and the DC going into their silos and devising the best strategy for success for their particular units. It is also about the HC supervising the overall approach and making sure the two units have a game plan that is consistent with the overall strategy of defeating the opponent. Parcells was always the master of this method - it wasn't just figuring out how to score points - it was also understanding, for example, if your defense had an advantage in some manner over the opposing offense and therefore deciding whether the offense should play conservatively or aggressively. We may have seen a corollary of that theory with the signing by the Saints of Spagnuolo as their DC for next year. Spags likes to play an aggressive, attacking style defense, taking risks with his pressures. That style matches an offense that plays up tempo itself and can make up for an occasional mistake by the defense with a quick strike of its own. It also certainly matches with an offense that will often get a lead and play from ahead, opening the door to pressure an opposing offense that is forced to pass more often than it may be accustomed to.
How do we apply that theory of overall game planning to this game on Sunday. The primary approach would be to look at both units of the 49ers. First, their offense is not that explosive. They have a big play TE in Vernon Davis but their WRs have not had great years. Crabtree has some skill, but he has been a bit of a disappointment in the league and is not the big play WR that the 49ers thought he would be when they took him in the first round. Ted Ginn has good straight line speed but is not a great WR and the injury report says he is having some knee issues. The 49ers have been a running based offense this year, relying on their power RB Frank Gore, who in addition to his power, has just enough speed to break a run if the tackling is poor and the discipline in swarming to the ball by the defense is a little off. With more of a conservative offense, the Giants defense certainly has to stop the run, but be careful not to oversell to do so. The 49ers OL is big and can run block but has not been as solid pass blocking.
Looking at the other side of the ball, I believe there is the same disparity in the 49ers defense. They play 3-4 with a very good front 7, particularly led by their two very fast inside LBs, NaVorro and Willis, and have been very effective stopping the run this year. But I don't think their pass defense is as strong and they rely on pressure and good LB play in zone coverage to defend the pass.
Giants run defense has been very good last few weeks, stopping a better running game than the 49ers have in the Falcons two weeks ago. You have to anticipate that with the foul weather, it might be a low scoring game and you cannot change who you are, bring 8 or 9 up to the line of scrimmage and get beat on a play action pass deep. I would not be surprised to see Harbaugh pull out a trick play to fool the Giants.
Matching that conservative 49ers offense, it would be great if the Giants can turn this into a passing QB duel, weather notwithstanding. The optimum would be if the Giants are aggressive early, get ahead and force the 49ers to play from behind taking them out of their conservative running game. I would not take inordinate risks with the ball, of course, because with that slightly underpowered offense, the 49ers rely on turnovers to score points for their offense; remember last week when Saints gave away 17 points on turnovers. But you have to throw the ball to move the 49ers LBs away from the line of scrimmage. Using Ballard and Cruz to occupy the LBs might be a good tactic which could open up some throws to the outside. Conversely, the 49ers paying a lot of attention to the outside could open the middle of the field. Giants OL has to block them and if they do, Giants should be able to move the ball through the air. 49ers have one pretty good CB in Carlos Rogers and their S position is effective, but not great. On defense, I would not playing a gambling, pressuring style that gives Smith a chance to score by breaking one play here or there. Giants should go the route they did against the Packers and Falcons - rely on the DL to pressure the QB and put the onus on the DB-field to play well against the WRs. If they were able to contain the explosive WRs of the Packers and Falcons and hold TEs Jermichael Finley and Tony Gonzalez down, they should be able to handle the 49ers offense with a similar plan. Giants were very focused on Finley last week - part of their game plan was "smack # 88 every chance you get". The same approach should be in play this week with the defense - try not to let him get a clean, easy release off the line of scrimmage. But more than that, Giants need to have a S to give help on top to the LB that may cover him underneath. Giants will give the double coverage to TE Davis and expect the CBs to handle their assignments with a little less help than usual.
Boley in pass defense on Davis and Kiwanuka in run defense are important LBs this week. Of course, the DL needs to win its battle against the 49ers in the running game and give the LBs room to run down hill to make tackles. Giants did reasonably well stopping the run in the first 49ers game, but that doesn't mean it will work this time. You know what they say - past performance is not an indicator of future results. Osi should be a little more of a situational pass rusher this week than playing early downs against the run, because he is a little weaker in run defense. Giants did not get a good pass rush in the regular season game against the 49ers and they made Smith look better than he really is. But we all have observed that this is not the same defense that played back then. Giants defense, against explosive offenses of Cowboys, Falcons and Packers in the last 3 weeks have given up a total of 36 points. 49ers are a solid, well coached team and the Giants need to play well and play a clean game to win. Turnovers are always important of course, but with an opportunistic defense matched with the conservative, relatively unexplosive offense that the 49ers have, it is even more important that the Giants don't give it away (sheesh, I sound like those two dopes on NFL Network now).
Weather of course is a factor and is impossible to predict how it will affect the game. The current forecast is for 80% chance of showers today, 40% chance of showers on Saturday and 30% on Sunday. The forecast is also for heavy winds with gusts up to 25-35 MPH Friday, which actually could be good news. Strong wind dries up some of the ground water and may make for a slightly more playable field. The field should be covered until Sunday also helping its condition. Further, the forecast is not for drenching rains all day, rather for showers each of these days. Sunday the wind is expected to be around 10MPH - not great, but not terrible and Eli is certainly used to playing in windy conditions.
How do we apply that theory of overall game planning to this game on Sunday. The primary approach would be to look at both units of the 49ers. First, their offense is not that explosive. They have a big play TE in Vernon Davis but their WRs have not had great years. Crabtree has some skill, but he has been a bit of a disappointment in the league and is not the big play WR that the 49ers thought he would be when they took him in the first round. Ted Ginn has good straight line speed but is not a great WR and the injury report says he is having some knee issues. The 49ers have been a running based offense this year, relying on their power RB Frank Gore, who in addition to his power, has just enough speed to break a run if the tackling is poor and the discipline in swarming to the ball by the defense is a little off. With more of a conservative offense, the Giants defense certainly has to stop the run, but be careful not to oversell to do so. The 49ers OL is big and can run block but has not been as solid pass blocking.
Looking at the other side of the ball, I believe there is the same disparity in the 49ers defense. They play 3-4 with a very good front 7, particularly led by their two very fast inside LBs, NaVorro and Willis, and have been very effective stopping the run this year. But I don't think their pass defense is as strong and they rely on pressure and good LB play in zone coverage to defend the pass.
Giants run defense has been very good last few weeks, stopping a better running game than the 49ers have in the Falcons two weeks ago. You have to anticipate that with the foul weather, it might be a low scoring game and you cannot change who you are, bring 8 or 9 up to the line of scrimmage and get beat on a play action pass deep. I would not be surprised to see Harbaugh pull out a trick play to fool the Giants.
Matching that conservative 49ers offense, it would be great if the Giants can turn this into a passing QB duel, weather notwithstanding. The optimum would be if the Giants are aggressive early, get ahead and force the 49ers to play from behind taking them out of their conservative running game. I would not take inordinate risks with the ball, of course, because with that slightly underpowered offense, the 49ers rely on turnovers to score points for their offense; remember last week when Saints gave away 17 points on turnovers. But you have to throw the ball to move the 49ers LBs away from the line of scrimmage. Using Ballard and Cruz to occupy the LBs might be a good tactic which could open up some throws to the outside. Conversely, the 49ers paying a lot of attention to the outside could open the middle of the field. Giants OL has to block them and if they do, Giants should be able to move the ball through the air. 49ers have one pretty good CB in Carlos Rogers and their S position is effective, but not great. On defense, I would not playing a gambling, pressuring style that gives Smith a chance to score by breaking one play here or there. Giants should go the route they did against the Packers and Falcons - rely on the DL to pressure the QB and put the onus on the DB-field to play well against the WRs. If they were able to contain the explosive WRs of the Packers and Falcons and hold TEs Jermichael Finley and Tony Gonzalez down, they should be able to handle the 49ers offense with a similar plan. Giants were very focused on Finley last week - part of their game plan was "smack # 88 every chance you get". The same approach should be in play this week with the defense - try not to let him get a clean, easy release off the line of scrimmage. But more than that, Giants need to have a S to give help on top to the LB that may cover him underneath. Giants will give the double coverage to TE Davis and expect the CBs to handle their assignments with a little less help than usual.
Boley in pass defense on Davis and Kiwanuka in run defense are important LBs this week. Of course, the DL needs to win its battle against the 49ers in the running game and give the LBs room to run down hill to make tackles. Giants did reasonably well stopping the run in the first 49ers game, but that doesn't mean it will work this time. You know what they say - past performance is not an indicator of future results. Osi should be a little more of a situational pass rusher this week than playing early downs against the run, because he is a little weaker in run defense. Giants did not get a good pass rush in the regular season game against the 49ers and they made Smith look better than he really is. But we all have observed that this is not the same defense that played back then. Giants defense, against explosive offenses of Cowboys, Falcons and Packers in the last 3 weeks have given up a total of 36 points. 49ers are a solid, well coached team and the Giants need to play well and play a clean game to win. Turnovers are always important of course, but with an opportunistic defense matched with the conservative, relatively unexplosive offense that the 49ers have, it is even more important that the Giants don't give it away (sheesh, I sound like those two dopes on NFL Network now).
Weather of course is a factor and is impossible to predict how it will affect the game. The current forecast is for 80% chance of showers today, 40% chance of showers on Saturday and 30% on Sunday. The forecast is also for heavy winds with gusts up to 25-35 MPH Friday, which actually could be good news. Strong wind dries up some of the ground water and may make for a slightly more playable field. The field should be covered until Sunday also helping its condition. Further, the forecast is not for drenching rains all day, rather for showers each of these days. Sunday the wind is expected to be around 10MPH - not great, but not terrible and Eli is certainly used to playing in windy conditions.
Giants: Wow those analysts on NFL Network are really SMART !!!
Just got finished watching a segment on the Total Access show on NFL Network with Brian Billick and Moose Johnston. In case you missed it, I just had to summarize it here for your benefit, because they gave tremendous insight into the upcoming NFC championship game between the Giants and 49ers. The question placed before them by the brilliant host was: will Eli Manning have a big passing game against the 49ers defense. Moose Johnston explained that he might have a good game even though his receivers haven't been together that long. By comparison, the Saints receivers have been together with Brees for more games than Eli has been together with his receivers. (He gave the statistics - I think it was 384 games versus 127 games.) So - even though the Saints threw for over 400 yards last week against the 49ers, the Giants might not because Brees is really great. Also, the ever insightful Moose added, don't forget that the Saints turned the ball over to the 9ers in the passing game several times. So, in conclusion, Moose said, Eli might not have as big a game as Brees because the Saints are the best passing offense in the league and the Giants are not. Then, Moose added, even if Eli has a big passing game, he can't turn the ball over. Brilliant analysis.
I was waiting with bated breath to hear what Billick might say. I couldn't imagine what this X-es and O-s master, former Super Bowl winning Head Coach might add to the well considered thoughts of Moose Johnston. (People named "Moose" are generally considered to be smart, right?) He gazed into the camera with a serious, steely look. His eye level slightly above the center of the camera and his chin slightly raised, therefore seemed like he was looking down at his audience with some condescension. Billick said Giants can throw the ball down the field but they should not turn the ball over. He added with self assured certainty, that Eli turned the ball over in the past, that he needs to try to throw the ball, but needs to protect it and be careful with turnovers.
Fortunately, I had my DVR going and recorded this segment. I made a DVD of it and Fed-Exed it directly to Gilbride and Coughlin at the Timex Performance Center in East Ruthreford NJ. I hope it gets there before they leave to San Francisco, so they can review this inside information. But my fear is that even if it gets there early Saturday morning, they will have already installed their offensive game plan and it will be too late to change. Woe is me. I hope they didn't put in the game plan for Eli to throw a lot of interceptions, because that would probably be bad for the team.
I was waiting with bated breath to hear what Billick might say. I couldn't imagine what this X-es and O-s master, former Super Bowl winning Head Coach might add to the well considered thoughts of Moose Johnston. (People named "Moose" are generally considered to be smart, right?) He gazed into the camera with a serious, steely look. His eye level slightly above the center of the camera and his chin slightly raised, therefore seemed like he was looking down at his audience with some condescension. Billick said Giants can throw the ball down the field but they should not turn the ball over. He added with self assured certainty, that Eli turned the ball over in the past, that he needs to try to throw the ball, but needs to protect it and be careful with turnovers.
Fortunately, I had my DVR going and recorded this segment. I made a DVD of it and Fed-Exed it directly to Gilbride and Coughlin at the Timex Performance Center in East Ruthreford NJ. I hope it gets there before they leave to San Francisco, so they can review this inside information. But my fear is that even if it gets there early Saturday morning, they will have already installed their offensive game plan and it will be too late to change. Woe is me. I hope they didn't put in the game plan for Eli to throw a lot of interceptions, because that would probably be bad for the team.
Giants: look ahead to 49ers
I am not going to start waxing nostalgic about the 2007 playoff run and compare it to the this year's because this run has not yet run its course, so complete comparison is not possible. I will say that through two games, the performance this year has been much more impressive. In the first two games in 2007, Giants had a solid, but not overwhelming win against the Buccaneers and a squeaker 4 point win against first seeded Cowboys. By comparison, Giants had a dominant wild card win against the Falcons with the defense shutting out Atlanta and winning 24-2. The second round this year was against a Packers team that was much stronger than the Cowboys who the Giants played in '07. Packers were close to undefeated this year and Giants absolutely spanked them winning going away, while the Cowboys win in 2007 was by the thinnest of margins. I am not saying this forecasts anything for the rest of these playoffs, just pointing things out.
I am really worried about the weather Sunday in San Francisco The forecast seems to change daily. Early in the week, there was near 100% chance that there would be precipitation from Thursday before the game all the way through Sunday. Now the forecast seems to have been revised - there will be rain in the few days prior to the game, but on Sunday itself, there is now a 40% chance of rain. Sloppy field and wet ball makes for unpredictable results. But actually, if the field is covered before the game, if there's not much wind, the offenses may not be too limited. People say that bad weather favors a running game over a passing game. But that may not be true - the thing that affects the passing game the most is bad wind, and the forecast is for only moderate winds. I actually think that passing game is enhanced by bad weather rather than hurt by it and the running game is hurt more. We'll see.
Harbaugh is a very good, creative coach. Giants have to stop the run and I think the inclination to play more man coverage in pass defense will work well this Sunday. For one thing, the TE is the main deep threat on the 49ers, the WRs are less likely to hurt you on deep pass routes. If they can handle Rodgers and his very dangerous deep threat WRs, the Giants should, at least theoretically be able to hold down Smith and his less-talented WRs.
Diehl needs to play a good game this Sunday, the 49ers RDE Smith abused the Saints LT and caused lots of problems for the offense, frequently disrupting plays.
While the 49ers have a physical, mauling OL that does well in pass blocking, the word is that they do not do particularly well pass blocking. The hope is that the muddy field does not slow down the Giants pass rush and they can do a decent job getting after Smith. In a low scoring game, influenced by a sloppy field, turnovers will be even more important than usual. I said before the Packers game that if Rodgers was on his game, Giants would probably lose. I also said that the Giants had to play a very clean game offensively and clearly win the turnover battle. That turned out to be an accurate forecast - Giants turned the ball over only once to four by the Packers. Rodgers was off his game, due in large measure to Giants defense disrupting it, and Giants won easily. This week, Giants defense can afford to be aggressive with 49ers offense, who are less likely to make a lot of big plays than the Packers were. Giants limited Packers big play offense, giving up only one play greater than 20 yards the entire game. Giants need to do a good job covering and limiting TE Vernon Davis and, if so, will do a decent job limiting the 49ers offense. Everyone is making a big fuss about how well Alex Smith played last week and how he took a big step up as a strong NFL QB. I don't get it - Smith was pretty mediocre through 3 1/2 quarters and made 3 or 4 nice pass plays in the last few minutes to win the game. They were nice passes - I am not taking anything away from him. But still - 4 passes does not a game or a season make.
I am really worried about the weather Sunday in San Francisco The forecast seems to change daily. Early in the week, there was near 100% chance that there would be precipitation from Thursday before the game all the way through Sunday. Now the forecast seems to have been revised - there will be rain in the few days prior to the game, but on Sunday itself, there is now a 40% chance of rain. Sloppy field and wet ball makes for unpredictable results. But actually, if the field is covered before the game, if there's not much wind, the offenses may not be too limited. People say that bad weather favors a running game over a passing game. But that may not be true - the thing that affects the passing game the most is bad wind, and the forecast is for only moderate winds. I actually think that passing game is enhanced by bad weather rather than hurt by it and the running game is hurt more. We'll see.
Harbaugh is a very good, creative coach. Giants have to stop the run and I think the inclination to play more man coverage in pass defense will work well this Sunday. For one thing, the TE is the main deep threat on the 49ers, the WRs are less likely to hurt you on deep pass routes. If they can handle Rodgers and his very dangerous deep threat WRs, the Giants should, at least theoretically be able to hold down Smith and his less-talented WRs.
Diehl needs to play a good game this Sunday, the 49ers RDE Smith abused the Saints LT and caused lots of problems for the offense, frequently disrupting plays.
While the 49ers have a physical, mauling OL that does well in pass blocking, the word is that they do not do particularly well pass blocking. The hope is that the muddy field does not slow down the Giants pass rush and they can do a decent job getting after Smith. In a low scoring game, influenced by a sloppy field, turnovers will be even more important than usual. I said before the Packers game that if Rodgers was on his game, Giants would probably lose. I also said that the Giants had to play a very clean game offensively and clearly win the turnover battle. That turned out to be an accurate forecast - Giants turned the ball over only once to four by the Packers. Rodgers was off his game, due in large measure to Giants defense disrupting it, and Giants won easily. This week, Giants defense can afford to be aggressive with 49ers offense, who are less likely to make a lot of big plays than the Packers were. Giants limited Packers big play offense, giving up only one play greater than 20 yards the entire game. Giants need to do a good job covering and limiting TE Vernon Davis and, if so, will do a decent job limiting the 49ers offense. Everyone is making a big fuss about how well Alex Smith played last week and how he took a big step up as a strong NFL QB. I don't get it - Smith was pretty mediocre through 3 1/2 quarters and made 3 or 4 nice pass plays in the last few minutes to win the game. They were nice passes - I am not taking anything away from him. But still - 4 passes does not a game or a season make.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Giants - 49ers Preview: Saturday night odds and ends
Superficially, the match up on defense looks very challenging for the Giants. The Giants defense against the run has been poor this year and the 49ers running game is their strength on offense. However, it's not as bad as it seems, IMO. First of all, the Giants defense seems to be getting a little better as the season is moving along. Second, the teams that have run best against the Giants are the ones that have spread their offense out, gotten the Giants in nickel coverage, fooled the young/light LBs and gashed the Giants for a few long runs in each game. It's almost more encouraging for the Giants to have totally blown one or two plays in each game than to have given 5-6 yards on every play. While Frank Gore does have some speed and can make a long run, he is more of a power back and the 49ers are not a spread-the-field offense. Giants DL is pretty good against the run, especially with Tuck back and starting to play a little better. The hope here is that the LBs will play better also with the experience they have gained over the first half of the season and Giants will at least make a representative effort against the 49ers running game.
Manningham hurt his knee, apparently in practice this week and has been added to the injury report. It looks like Nicks is coming back and with Barden able and ready, Giants should still have enough weapons for Eli to throw to. Barden only made two catches against the Patriots in his 2011 debut, but he looked very good to me - big and powerful for a WR - and he ran his routes very smoothly.
I might have Webster keeping an eye on TE Vernon Davis, who might be the 49ers biggest down field threat and is a physically bigger target than Crabtree. Webster has great size and can battle him.
Giants need a big game from their front 7 to stop the running game and from their OL to counter the strong 49ers front 7. If they do they will be able to make a game out of it. If Osi is not handling the run well, Giants should not be afraid to get Kiwanuka up front and replace him with another LB.
Manningham hurt his knee, apparently in practice this week and has been added to the injury report. It looks like Nicks is coming back and with Barden able and ready, Giants should still have enough weapons for Eli to throw to. Barden only made two catches against the Patriots in his 2011 debut, but he looked very good to me - big and powerful for a WR - and he ran his routes very smoothly.
I might have Webster keeping an eye on TE Vernon Davis, who might be the 49ers biggest down field threat and is a physically bigger target than Crabtree. Webster has great size and can battle him.
Giants need a big game from their front 7 to stop the running game and from their OL to counter the strong 49ers front 7. If they do they will be able to make a game out of it. If Osi is not handling the run well, Giants should not be afraid to get Kiwanuka up front and replace him with another LB.
Friday, November 11, 2011
A look ahead to the 49ers
The stretch of five very tough games on the Giants schedule from week 9 through week 13 consists of: Patriots, 49ers (road), Eagles (home), Packers (home) and Saints on the road. After that, the Giants last 4 games have 3 divisional games, with the Redskins at home, the Cowboys twice, in addition to the Jets.
In this current 5 game stretch, everyone was predicting gloom for the Giants and a fall from the grace of an early season soft schedule. Giants did not play well in winning some of those early games, which correctly contributed to the assessment that they were really a mediocre team propped up by the strength of those weak first half opponents. This fall from grace may yet happen - we don't really know how good the Giants are yet. However, of these five games, all the experts thought that the Patriots in New England was as close to an unwinnable game for the Giants as possible. Now the Giants have won that game and go on the road to San Francisco. In retrospect, the Giants did just enough on defense to hold the Patriots in check and did just enough on offense against a weak Patriots defense to win the game. Patriots may not be the powerhouse team that everyone assumes them to be and the win may not be as sparkling as it appeared.
The 49ers, at least on paper, present an interesting and perhaps more difficult challenge. While the Patriots have a much more potent offensive team, they have a weak defense and I thought the Giants would be able to score against them. The 49ers have a very good defensive team. They are first in the NFL against the run in terms of total yards allowed, yards per attempt and a number of other metrics. Giants have not been running the ball well against anybody this year, so it doesn't figure to get any better against the 49ers. Up in Foxboro, the Giants could go into the game knowing that they could rely on their passing game against the poor Patriots pass defense. The thing that could be tough for the Giants this week, however is that the 49ers pass defense is not bad either. At least statistically they are almost as good as the Giants. The NFL.com web site has team defensive statistics and I decided to download these team stats and calculated each teams QB-rating-against statistic. In other words, like the on-base-percentage-against is a measure for pitchers in baseball, the QB-rating-against tells you what the QB rating of opposing QBs is against the defense. Interestingly, the Giants and 49ers are ranked right behind each other, with Giants 5th in the league with a QBRA of 82.7 and the 49ers are 6th in the league with a QBRA of 84.0. To show that the statistic has some validity, the Jets, with their all-world corner Darrelle Revis and their excellent coverage secondary are best in the league with this QBRA at 63.
Based on this, the 49ers don't have an apparent weakness in the secondary that the Giants could exploit. Nevertheless, I think it would benefit the Giants to get into a high scoring shootout with the 49ers, because the Giants have more and better offensive weapons at the receiver position and, more important, they certainly have a more talented QB. If ever there was a week where the Giants should throw first and use success in the passing game to set up the run, this is it. Scoring early and taking a lead will be very useful against the 49ers. Giants have to stop the run and force the 49ers to pass, something, it should be noted, that no team has been successful doing this year.
If it comes down to a passing / QB duel, I like the Giants chances. Giants should do everything they can in their game plan to make it that way. 49ers have great runner in Gore and running game to make their offense go. Giants have to stop that and make them pass. Easier said than done: Giants have not stopped run well this year. They started to show some signs last week, let's see if it continues. I see Kiwanuka getting a lot of playing time this week at LB instead of the lighter Jacquian Williams to counter the 49er running game. I would also use Osi less than usual for the same reason - because of his so-so performance against the run.
On the offensive side of the ball for the Giants, they have to handle a 49ers defense that plays a 3-4 with 2 very good inside LBs. To counter that, Giants should use a lot of 3-WR looks and throw to take the 49ers defense out of their base comfort zone. Then, if they run, they should try to go between the tackles rather than outside, because it can be hard to run outside against that 3-4 defense.
Speaking of statistics, if you want to analyze how good a team's pass rush is and how well they get after the QB, the simple approach is to look at the number of team sacks. However, this statistic can be misleading because a team that has a great offense and is often ahead in the game, forces the opposing offense to pass more often, and in fact to pass deep, which can lead to more sacks. The statistic should at least be normalized to the number of pass attempts by the opposing offense. Giants are leading the league in total sacks with 28 and the 49ers are not far behind, 11th in the league with 22 total sacks. However, the 49ers have a good run defense and have been leading in most of their games, forcing the opponent to pass more often. If you divide sacks by total attempts, you will find that the 49ers have a .068 sacks-per-attempt rating, which is 17th, the lower half of the league. The Giants, on the other hand lead the league in total sacks and are essentially tied for first in the league (with Redskins and Ravens) at .098 sacks-per-attempt. In plain English, that essentially means that every Giants opponent's pass attempt has a 10% chance of ending in a sack. 49ers are nearly 1/3 less likely to get to the QB. This only adds to the logic of getting into a passing duel with the 49ers.
In this current 5 game stretch, everyone was predicting gloom for the Giants and a fall from the grace of an early season soft schedule. Giants did not play well in winning some of those early games, which correctly contributed to the assessment that they were really a mediocre team propped up by the strength of those weak first half opponents. This fall from grace may yet happen - we don't really know how good the Giants are yet. However, of these five games, all the experts thought that the Patriots in New England was as close to an unwinnable game for the Giants as possible. Now the Giants have won that game and go on the road to San Francisco. In retrospect, the Giants did just enough on defense to hold the Patriots in check and did just enough on offense against a weak Patriots defense to win the game. Patriots may not be the powerhouse team that everyone assumes them to be and the win may not be as sparkling as it appeared.
The 49ers, at least on paper, present an interesting and perhaps more difficult challenge. While the Patriots have a much more potent offensive team, they have a weak defense and I thought the Giants would be able to score against them. The 49ers have a very good defensive team. They are first in the NFL against the run in terms of total yards allowed, yards per attempt and a number of other metrics. Giants have not been running the ball well against anybody this year, so it doesn't figure to get any better against the 49ers. Up in Foxboro, the Giants could go into the game knowing that they could rely on their passing game against the poor Patriots pass defense. The thing that could be tough for the Giants this week, however is that the 49ers pass defense is not bad either. At least statistically they are almost as good as the Giants. The NFL.com web site has team defensive statistics and I decided to download these team stats and calculated each teams QB-rating-against statistic. In other words, like the on-base-percentage-against is a measure for pitchers in baseball, the QB-rating-against tells you what the QB rating of opposing QBs is against the defense. Interestingly, the Giants and 49ers are ranked right behind each other, with Giants 5th in the league with a QBRA of 82.7 and the 49ers are 6th in the league with a QBRA of 84.0. To show that the statistic has some validity, the Jets, with their all-world corner Darrelle Revis and their excellent coverage secondary are best in the league with this QBRA at 63.
Based on this, the 49ers don't have an apparent weakness in the secondary that the Giants could exploit. Nevertheless, I think it would benefit the Giants to get into a high scoring shootout with the 49ers, because the Giants have more and better offensive weapons at the receiver position and, more important, they certainly have a more talented QB. If ever there was a week where the Giants should throw first and use success in the passing game to set up the run, this is it. Scoring early and taking a lead will be very useful against the 49ers. Giants have to stop the run and force the 49ers to pass, something, it should be noted, that no team has been successful doing this year.
If it comes down to a passing / QB duel, I like the Giants chances. Giants should do everything they can in their game plan to make it that way. 49ers have great runner in Gore and running game to make their offense go. Giants have to stop that and make them pass. Easier said than done: Giants have not stopped run well this year. They started to show some signs last week, let's see if it continues. I see Kiwanuka getting a lot of playing time this week at LB instead of the lighter Jacquian Williams to counter the 49er running game. I would also use Osi less than usual for the same reason - because of his so-so performance against the run.
On the offensive side of the ball for the Giants, they have to handle a 49ers defense that plays a 3-4 with 2 very good inside LBs. To counter that, Giants should use a lot of 3-WR looks and throw to take the 49ers defense out of their base comfort zone. Then, if they run, they should try to go between the tackles rather than outside, because it can be hard to run outside against that 3-4 defense.
Speaking of statistics, if you want to analyze how good a team's pass rush is and how well they get after the QB, the simple approach is to look at the number of team sacks. However, this statistic can be misleading because a team that has a great offense and is often ahead in the game, forces the opposing offense to pass more often, and in fact to pass deep, which can lead to more sacks. The statistic should at least be normalized to the number of pass attempts by the opposing offense. Giants are leading the league in total sacks with 28 and the 49ers are not far behind, 11th in the league with 22 total sacks. However, the 49ers have a good run defense and have been leading in most of their games, forcing the opponent to pass more often. If you divide sacks by total attempts, you will find that the 49ers have a .068 sacks-per-attempt rating, which is 17th, the lower half of the league. The Giants, on the other hand lead the league in total sacks and are essentially tied for first in the league (with Redskins and Ravens) at .098 sacks-per-attempt. In plain English, that essentially means that every Giants opponent's pass attempt has a 10% chance of ending in a sack. 49ers are nearly 1/3 less likely to get to the QB. This only adds to the logic of getting into a passing duel with the 49ers.
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