Giants: Jets give great inspiration

Consider the seasons of the two Super Bowl contestants.

Giants were 6-2 then went on their 4 game losing streak, losing to 49ers, Eagles, Saints and then the Packers. They got a little juice going in their game against the Packers, gave some signs that maybe the worst was behind them and were still breathing, one game behind the Cowboys in the division. Then they went down to Dallas and beat the Cowboys, bringing their record to 7-6 and putting them in control of their playoff fate. The next week they suffered a truly dispiriting loss to an awful Redskins team, dropping the Giants to 7-7 and giving the fans the sorry feeling that the win against the Cowboys was an illusion. Next up was the Jets. The stadium coresidents,  the trash talking, we're the big brother in town, we're going to the Super Bowl Jets. Giants playoff run began in earnest. They had to win the last two games of the year to make the playoffs and the Jets stood in their way. Giants beat the Jets, then in succession beat the Cowboys, Falcons, Packers and 49ers. So once they met the Jets, they have not lost another game in the season.

Now let's look at the Patriots season. Patriots were nearly perfect in the first 6 games of the season going 5-1 with their only loss an upset by the Bills. Then they had a bad loss to the Steelers and an even worse loss to the Giants. Two game losing streak and a 5-3 record with the Jets coming up in a road game for them at Met Life Stadium. Jets were licking their chops to avenge an earlier season loss on the road and smelled a wounded animal in the Patriots on a two game losing streak. Patriots crushed the Jets 37-16 and have not lost since.

There you go --- the two Super Bowl contestants, both considered bitter rivals of the Jets, have not lost a game since playing the Jets. Too bad Giants didn't play them earlier in the season.

Giants: Jets odds and ends

Under the Radar Plays

One of my favorite things to do when analyzing a football game is to look at the "under the radar" plays. By that I mean - everyone notices the big plays, the sacks, the picks, the scoring plays and remembers those. Sometimes there are subtle plays that seem relatively unimportant at the time, but in retrospect have a big hand and a causative effect on setting up that big play. A few such plays from the Jets game follow:

Giants were up 20-14 and had the ball with 4:55 left, 1st and 10 at their own 18, trying to run out the clock. 3rd and 3, DJ Ware runs for 17 and gets hit out of bounds for another 15 yards. Advancing the ball 32 yards is not a minor under the radar play, except the Giants did not score on the drive, did not hold the ball much longer,  ran it 3 more times and then were forced to punt. Nice play perhaps, but it didn't lead to any offensive points and didn't allow the Giants to run the clock down much.  However, as I have often sermonized about on this blog, football is all about field position. The extra 32 yards brought the Giants out across midfield and when Weatherford punted, he did so from the Jets 40 and trapped the Jets down on the 8 yard line. That set up the safety by Canty which iced the game.

BTW - Weatherford has had a great year punting for the Giants. I remember only one bad shank, he has been directionally punting beautifully, getting some great length and hang time. Great move grabbing him. I was sure someone would grab Dodge after the Giants cut him because he has a cannon for a leg. But I guess teams want consistency from punters, not five great punts mixed in with two or three horrible ones. You can't only consider  average yards per kick or even average net yards to measure a punter's effectiveness, but need also to view his kicks in percentiles. Punter needs to kick 95% mostly effective kicks, and have only a small percentage of shanks in order to be an effective kicker.

Another important, somewhat under the radar play was JPP's sack of Sanchez right before the half. Sanchez had just hit his TE Keller for 15 yards to the Giants 19. He then threw two incomplete passes and had a 3rd and 10. If he throws another incomplete pass, Folk is set up for a fairly easy 36 yard FG. JPP's sack knocked them out of chip shot FG into a 44 yard attempt that is a little harder. The difference in success for most kickers in FG accuracy for kicks below or above 40 yards is significant. Folk was sitting on the sideline for 3 plays expecting to kick an easy 35 yard (or so) FG and suddenly has to kick one that is closer to 45. He missed it badly wide right. (I love the sound of that - wide right.)

General Musings

The PI call on Deon Grant against Dustin Keller on 4th down that kept the Jets second TD drive going was a ridiculous call. There was barely any contact, Keller saw that he was too well covered and that the ball was out of his reach so he initiated the contact bumping into Grant and acted like he lost his balance because of the hit drawing the PI. Without the penalty, Jets don't score. In fact, they needed a gruesome two many men on the field penalty against the Giants (isn't that a 2 minute minor?) to allow them to convert another 4th down play on their first TD drive.

On the Canty sack for a safety that iced the game, Tuck made a really good play to make it happen. Tuck got some penetration against Wayne Hunter, jumped up in Sanchez' face obscuring his vision, forcing him to pull the ball down and hold it a beat longer looking for an open passing lane. By that time, Canty broke through his block and  sacked Sanchez.

I don't think we really appreciate how great year Victor Cruz is having and what a savior he has been. H is 3rd in the league in passing yards and couldn't get on the field in several of the first few games because Gilbride thought he made too many mistakes in route running. They were so concerned, in fact, that after Dixon went down with an injury, the Giants brought in Brandon Stokely as the slot receiver. Stokely got cut and Cruz got the wake up call necessary to motivate him to work harder and keep his job. Aside from massing piles of yards, he has made several critical catches that set up winning scores for the Giants. This past Sunday against the Jets, he made the 99 yard TD run, he caught a 36 yard pass that was the biggest play on the Giants second TD and he made a 30 yard run and catch that got the Giants down to the 2 and set up their FG.

Giants - Jets game review II

Slight correction on previous blog posts: I slammed Gilbride for a bad call - for calling the pass right after Giants recovered the Jets fumbled snap in the end zone, with about 8 minutes left in the game. The papers reported that Gilbride sent in a running play, but Eli saw that the Jets were in a run-stopping front and the play would not have succeeded. Consequently, he called an audible and switched to a pass. Eli said it was a "safe" pass that he threw low so that the only person that could catch it was Nicks and if he didn't get it, it would fall incomplete. Of course, he didn't count on Nicks tapping it up in the air for a LB to pick off. This was in today's papers, but initially I heard some other story, that the RB came into the game late and the call didn't get to Eli in time, so they ran a pass play. It all sounds suspicious to me and I would not be surprised if Eli decided to fall on his sword, watch the back of his OC and accept responsibility for the awful call. I think the most likely circumstance is that Gilbride sent in a play that had a run or pass option and Eli elected to pass. That still makes it Gilbride's fault. I think Eli is a great QB and a great decision maker, but that is one time the coaches should have taken the play call out of the hands of the QB and required a run, no option. I watched the play again and the Jets did not line up 9 guys at the line of scrimmage and Eli did not appear to be calling an audible, so I am not completely exculpating Gilbride on this call.

One time Eli did appear to call an audible (thanks to my friend Ray for catching this) was on Jacobs 28 yard run right after Cruz' big catch to set up Bradshaw's first TD run. Eli was barking signals at the line, pointing and gesturing and the Giants barely managed to get the play off with only 1 or 2 ticks left on the play clock, all suggesting that he changed the play call, or at least changed the direction that they were going to run it. Jacobs ran wide to the left side of the offense, where the Giants ran about 75% of their plays to their right that day and the play was wide open. Jets defenders did not touch Jacobs until he was a good 15 yards down field.

Another example of Rex Ryan's questionable coaching on Saturday, IMO was going for the onside kick towards the end of the game. Giants had just gotten a safety, led by 8 and the Jets were punting from their own 20. There were more than 2 minutes left in the game, the Jets still had 1 timeout left, so if Rex trusted his defense to get a quick stop, he could have kicked deep and gotten the ball back for his offense with about 1:20 left in the game (but no timeouts). That has a low but not impossible chance of success. An expected on side kick, from a punt no less, where the kicking team telegraphs which side of the field they're going to has a near zero chance of success. We all know that Mike Westhoff of the Jets is a fabled ST coach, but I doubt that even he practiced on side kicks off punts following safeties.

I think Coughlin is not a perfect coach, but he is a solid football man and decent coach. On the other sidelines, Ryan has done well in his first two years as Jets coach, getting the Jets in the conference championship in both years. Perhaps his bold style, his bragging trash talk and his brash predictions have even helped propel his team, given them great confidence a little sizzle to their step and allowed them to play a little bit over their heads these last couple of years. I think his conduct borders on the unprofessional and is a high wire act that may eventually run a little old and tiresome even with his own players. I really don't know - players may love it - I am just guessing here. Players can get tired of the grating military style of Coughlin; they may get tired of Rex also.

The Giants offense missed a number of really good chances to make the game much easier for themselves than it had to be on Saturday. I was really disappointed that they did not score after getting 1st and goal from the 2 yard line early in the 2nd quarter, but after reviewing the game again just now, it was not as bad as I thought when I saw the game at first. On that possession, the first play call was a play action pass where both Pascoe, who appeared to be the primary target and Beckum, slipped coming out of their set position which totally threw off the timing of the play and any chance for success. Pascoe was all alone, Jets LB bit on the fake and moved up to stop the run. By the time Pascoe had righted himself, the window had closed. Eli tried Beckum but it glanced off of his hands. Giants failed on a running play on second down with a real good push by the Jets DL. On 3rd down, Nicks ran a slant and had Revis beaten, but Revis knocked it away from behind. BTW - Revis is a great player but he holds on nearly every play. On this particular pass defense, Revis had his right arm around Nicks waist and had his left arm grabbing Nicks arm before the ball arrived. Every other CB in football would have gotten called for PI, but Revis gets protected like he was Michael Jordan.

In the 4th quarter after Phillips INT, Giants had first down on the 14, but Jets put pressure on Eli prevented him from hitting an open Beckum on first down. They got a sack on 2nd down and on 3rd down, Eli overthrew Cruz by about 6 inches when Cruz was open in the end zone.

Giants had 3 takeaways on defense - two INTs and the fumble recovery. But there were 5 or 6 other plays that could have / should have been turnovers. There was the fumble by Kerley which was improperly reversed by the refs, there was the tuck rule overrule, there was the Sanchez hand coming forward overrule, there was the dropped sure INT by Grant and there was the fumble by Santonio Holmes that was called an incomplete pass. This game could have had a much different look if one or two of those five plays had gone in the Giants favor. Maybe one more day of thinking about the Jets game and then it's on to looking ahead to the Cowboys.

Giants: Jets game review I

After slamming the coaches for the better part of the year and a good part of last year, we have to give them credit when they do well. They did well this week. The defense resorted to a new style (DC Fowl must have been reading my blog) which is really a throwback of an old style. They were running much more straight man to man with S's varying between roaming deep and pressing up tighter, showing more tight press coverage. This was a change for the DC Fewell who had relied on a zone which the Giants defense simply did not play well. The results this week were really strong for the defense. There are several ways to look at the success of the defense against the Jets. After the initial drive, the Jets did not get into the end zone, except for a bad INT that gave them a short field on the Giants 15. Even then, they almost did not get in, needed two QB scrambles and a questionable holding penalty on Antrel Rolle to convert. You might say that the Jets were unlucky not to get into the end zone right before that, giving up the ball on a fumbled snap, so the return INT was just evening up a fumble that should not have happened. But I will counter that, by pointing out that the Giants gave up very few big plays (more on that in a moment) which forced the Jets to march down the field on slow painstaking drives, taking lots of snaps. This just gives the offense another chance to mess up - the modern day offense tries to score by gaining yardage in a big chunk or two to get in position to score, so it does not need to run the 15 play drives. Jets fumble was a result of Giants defense not giving up the big play, forcing the Jets to make play after play and giving them a chance for an error. Furthermore, the Jets were fortunate to get a ridiculously soft PI call on that drive to get them down there in the first place.

Another measure of the Giants defensive success, one that I like much more, is to examine the Jets passing performance. Sanchez passed for 258 yards, which is not a bad total for their offense. However, the 258 does not consider the 5 sacks Giants got, which takes 32 yards off of their total, leaving them with 226. This 226 came on 59 pass attempts, and if you add in the 5 sacks, Sanchez dropped back to pass 64 times. The best single statistic to measure a passing attack is yards per attempt and for the Jets, this total comes to a very meager 3.5 yards per pass attempt. The Jets ran the ball for an average of 4.2 yards per carry, which means that every time Sanchez raised up his arm to throw, the Jets had a lower expected gain than if they handed it off to one of their RBs. That is a remarkable statistic. Decent teams are in the 7 yard range, 8 or 9 being a very good number.; this 3.5 is embarrassingly low.

Another way to look at it is that Sanchez had more unsuccessful pass plays, 34 (29 incomplete throws + 5 sacks) than Eli had total passes in the game (27). Eli threw for 7 fewer net yards than the Jets on 9 completions compared to 30 for the Jets. It's no wonder Jets had many more snaps and time of possession, they didn't advance the ball down field at all. The few times they tried to go deep were either horribly off the mark passes, INTs or near INTs by the Giants DB field and one notable offensive PI on Plaxico.

JPP might be the best DE in football right now and IMHO, whoever is in second place isn't really that close. When Tuck is healthy, fresh and lively on the other side, like he was this week, the Giants DL is a force. The opposing OL can't slide their protection towards JPP or chip him with an extra blocker without leaving Tuck isolated or singled up on the other side and Tuck is a top DE also. Canty in the middle took advantage of being in JPP's neighborhood, also rarely seeing a double team. I don't want to get too excited, because I think the Jets OL is really a weak spot for the team, so we can't automatically translate Giants performance in this game to next week, or beyond if Giants make the playoffs. You know what they say - past results are not a guarantee of future performance. But still.... this was the best performance by the DL this year.

On offense, the Giants did not move the ball consistently, but still recognized that the Giants defense was doing a good job, so it did not put the ball in harm's way, with one notable exception. They took their shots down the field when they were there and hit on just enough of them to score some points. They ran slightly different runs in the 2nd half and were much more successful. In the first half, they were running more up the middle and had trouble against the good run stopping Jets LBs. In the second half they ran more outside and off tackle and were very successful. Again, Hynoski had a good game getting out on the LBs while the T and especially Snee at G hooked the DE and LB to whichever side they were running. Nice plan, good adjustments by the coaches and good execution. Giants only had 116 yards rushing, but more than 100 of those came in the second half.

I know Eli only completed 1/3 of his passes, but if it's possible to have a good game throwing such a  low completion percentage, he did. He threw a great ball to Cruz on the 36 yard pass to set up the second score. His incompletions were the result of balls thrown away, excellent plays by Jets DBs or miscommunications between Eli and the WRs resulting in balls landing in open spaces on the field.

Giants had 2 INTs, dropped 2 other INTs and had 3 fumbles reversed on questionable calls. I am not one for conspiracy theories, so i don't suspect the league or the refs of wrongdoing, but the Jets got every imaginable break form the referees in this game. Three plays were ruled fumbnles on the field and were reversed on razor thin calls, all against the Giants. The worst reversal was the first, Aaron Ross recovery and TD, when the Jets runners hand carrying the ball hit Deon Grant's foot, not the ground, but the call was reversed as down by contact nonetheless.

Giants: Jets game Review - initial thoughts

I still have only seen the game once and need to review it again to do some good analysis, but in the afterglow of victory, I have to publish my initial, off the cuff reactions.

The defense played its best game in a long time, maybe all year. I think there are a few contributing factors: Fewell came away from the soft zones which the Giants have been playing so poorly this entire year and resorted to more straight up man to man coverage. The DL had a huge game, getting in Sanchez face often, thoroughly outplaying the Jets flawed OL. More than the play of the Giants defense, however, could be the fact that the Jets really do not have a good offense. Their QB is mediocre; he has average arm strength, is not particularly accurate, is prone to make some poor decisions and  tends to hold the ball too long when he is looking off his primary target, all of which are important qualities for a QB. He has some talent, is a good runner and does throw a nice ball when he is confident where to go with the ball. Anyway - this is a Giants blog, not a Jets blog - so I guess to make a long story short, the Giants defense had better results partly because they played better and partly because the Jets offense is not very good. Giants stopped the run and held Sanchez under check in the passing game, giving up very few big plays.

Giants offense had a lot of trouble getting open receivers against the very good Jets pass defense. Their CBs knocked down a lot of passes, and Eli threw away a bunch because of bad communications with the WRs, but they made just enough plays on offense to give the defense a chance to win the game.

Gilbride made the stupidest call of the game which almost gave the game away. Giants were up 20-7 and had just stopped the Jets drive after Sanchez fumbled the snap and the Giants recovered in the end zone. There were 8 minutes left and the Jets limited and unexplosive offense had not scored a point since the first drive of the game. The Giants should have run the ball 3 times, taken 2 minutes off the clock and punted the ball back to the Jets. There is no way that the Jets anemic offense could score 2 TD in 6 minutes. The only way the Jets could get back into the game is with a turnover. Gilbride calls a pass, Nicks bobbled it, tapped it up into the air, Jets picked it off and the Jets were set up again at the Giants 10 yard line. This is the kind of call that made Buddy Ryan punch Gilbride in the face back about 15 years ago when they were both coordinators on the Houston Oilers.

Victor Cruz has been an absolute revelation this year. If he were the number 1 WR on the team, the offense would not be great. But as the second or third WR, he is a great play maker. This is the second time this year that he took a short, mundane pass, broke a few tackles and made a long TD run. Remember he did the same thing against the Eagles all the way back in game 3 this season.

Considering he completed only 1/3 of his passes, Eli had a very good day throwing the ball. Sounds crazy to say, but the Jets defense really disrupted the Giants offense and this had nothing to do with Eli's accuracy.

Giant: Jets game preview II

A few days ago, still cast under the depressing pall of a miserable loss to the Redskins, I published a post that matched my mood and pointed out three things that I did not like about the match up against the Jets. Reviewing that post briefly, the match up problems that I foresaw were: (1) Giants strength, their passing offense, will be going against a strong pass defense unit led be CB Revis. Furthermore, the weakness of the Jets defense is their run defense and their inability to cover TEs in the middle of the field, which are both things that the Giants are not well equipped to take advantage of, with poor running game and injured, average TEs. (2) Jets weakness, their offense, will be buoyed up by going against the worst defense in the NFL, our beloved Giants. If the Giants defense can make Rex Grossman look like Joe Montana and Vince Young look like an NFL QB, even Sanchez will move the ball against it.  (3) Giants offense has had trouble this year in games where the opposing DL swamped the Giants OL. I'm thinking of the Eagles game and the Redskins game as prime examples. If the Jets blitz and get a pass rush, it could further cut into Giants offensive productivity.

That's the bad news, the glass-is-half-empty kind of approach. However when I woke up this morning, the sun was shining, it was so warm that I was able to walk outside and get the morning newspapers without putting on a coat, so somehow I have a sunnier disposition today and I will try to put on my rose colored glasses and find some other match ups that go in the Giants favor.

Jets OL vs. Giants DL:  Giants DL has been far from dominant this year, but they have had their moments and have showed that they can play well at times. Jets OL has been spotty this year, particularly at the RT position with Hunter. Slausson and Moore have been good at the G positions but not overwhelming. Giants have to find a way to exploit this advantage. They need a big game from JPP on Ferguson at LT but need Tuck, Kiwanuka, Tollefson or whomever plays against Hunter to beat him up and disrupt the offense. Other teams have kept extra blockers in to protect against the pass rush and are sending fewer receivers out in pass patterns. Because Giants secondary has been so poor, the many-defending-against-few hasn't helped much. Fewell has been reluctant to blitz much this year, electing to play coverage more often. This doesn't seem to have worked and it might be wise ofr Fewell to get more aggressive with his blitz and pressure packages these last few weeks of the season. In any case, the Giants DL vs. Jets OL is a good match up for the Giants.

Giants OL pass blocking against Jets DL: Jets DL has not put a big pass rush on this year. Their success on defense has come from coverage in the DB-field. The truth is that the Giants offense has been successful in virtually every game this year when the OL has pass blocked well. When the OL was beaten up by a pass rush, specifically in the Eagles and Redskins home games, the offense did poorly. But with Baas coming back, maybe the pass blocking gets better and Eli has time to hold the ball and make plays in the passing game.

Giants 3rd WR against Jets secondary: Revis is a great CB and Cromartie has talent on the other side. However, after those two, the Jets pass defense is not as strong as its reputation. Figure Revis will try to take out Nicks and Cormartie will try to handle Manningham. That leaves Cruz in the middle against Wilson, who is beatable. If Beckum is healthy, I would take some shots down field with him , but Cruz in the middle could be a big weapon this week.

It's amazing how the outlook changes in the NFL week to week. After the close Packers loss, Giants fans were pumped up. After beating Dallas, Giants fans were REALLY pumped up. Then, after losing in ugly manner to the Redskins, Giants fans are really deflated. Let's try to remember that the Giants are not playing the '85 Bears or the Montana led 49ers. This Saturday they're playing a team that is 8-6, with as many holes and flaws as the Giants have, with a vaunted defense that gave up 45 points to the Eagles last week and has not beaten a decent team all year. I am not saying this is an easy game for the Giants - especially because Rex Ryan is a good coach who will motivate his players to step up and protect his back from all the trash talking he has been doing. But, it is far from an unwinnable game also. Giants have a chance.

Giants: Look ahead to Jets game

There are some things I really don't like about the match ups for this game on Saturday against the Jets.

Jets pass defense vs. Giants passing offense: Jets have very good CBs and have been effective at taking away the dangerous WRs of opposing offenses. The Jets weakness in defending the pass is when they have to defend talented TEs and RBs in pass routes in the middle of the field. The Jets S position and LBs are not good in pass defense and they have been hurt there this year. However, the Giants do not have really dangerous TEs to exploit this weakness. Ballard has played well this year, but is not a big time threat, rather is a nice complimentary role player. On top of that, Ballard dinged up his knee last week against the Redskins and will be out this Saturday. Beckum and Pascoe are also hurt and their availability is unlikely, so not only do the Giants not have a dangerous threat at TE to go after the Jets S position, they may not even have a healthy TE on the roster to line up at all. Giants should get Ramses Barden to run the TE routes, he might be a good threat. He is not as big as Ballard, and may not be a great blocker, but Ballard was not a great blocker either despite his size, so the running game might not be damaged that much. Jets play a 3-4, so the TE will probably not be called on to block the bigger DEs as often, more often will block the LB, so the size disadvantage may not be as damaging. Giants need a huge game for their OL and from Hynoski if they go with this plan, but it seems like the only choice.

Anybody's offense vs. Giants defense: I am particularly concerned about the Dustin Keller - Giants LB match up. I always thought that Keller was the best player on the Jets offense. Santonio Holmes is a real threat, I am not knocking him and Plaxico looks like he's playing pretty well. But Keller has the combination of athleticism, size and quickness that the new age TEs seem to be coming into the league with. He is big enough to block, is too fast to be covered by a LB and can be too physical for some of the safeties in the league. Mark Sanchez is not a great QB, but he does have some talent. When he is sure where he wants to go with the ball and when his first read is open, he can deliver a good ball confidently and accurately. Sanchez is a little shakier when he has to come off his initial read and find secondary targets. He tends to hold the ball too long and is a little inaccurate. Giants have to penetrate the Jets pass blocking, but it seems we say this every week. Who knows what will happen this week.

Giants OL vs. blitzing, scheming Ryan defensive game plan: Ryan has backed off from his creative, gambling, blitzing schemes in the first year or two that he ran the Jets defense. He now has a slightly more conservative approach. But with the Giants weakness in last few games pass protecting, with their inability to  attack the Jets middle with a dangerous TE and with the Jets great cover CBs, Rex may decide to change his ways this week. If I were Ryan, I would think about rolling the dice with Revis locking up Nicks and with Cromartie locking up Manningham, take my chances with Cruz and return to the blitzing from all angles approach to disrupt the Giants passing game. To combat this, Giants have to be solid with their blitz pickups, make sure they know who the hot receiver is on every play and try to exploit it with Cruz in the middle when they get their chances. Makes me a little nervous - not a slam dunk that Giants can handle this tactic. Giants and Eli handled Rob Ryan's Dallas game plan which included lots of blitzes and is probably not dissimilar to what the Jets would try. But Rob had terrible CBs behind those blitzes in Dallas, while Rex has Revis and Cromartie back there.