Don't want to jinx the Giants and start talking about playoffs, but there are a few different circumstances under which the Giants can make the playoffs. The easiest one is well understood - if the Giants beat the Cowboys at Met Life Stadium on January 1st and do no worse than splitting the other two games against the Redskins and Jets, Giants will win the NFC East. In that circumstance, they would be tied, because the Giants will be no worse than 9-7 and the Cowboys will be no better than 9-7. Since, in this circumstance, the Giants will have won both games against the Cowboys and the head-to-head record is always the first tiebreaker applied, Giants will win the division at 9-7.
However, there is another circumstance that is not entirely unlikely that will also work for the Giants. If the Giants win their next two games against the Redskins and Jets while the Cowboys lose to the Eagles in week 16, the Giants will win the division regardless of the outcome of the Dallas game in week 17. This is because of a change the NFL made in tiebreaker rules this year. First the math: If Giants beat Redskins and Jets, they will be 9-6 going into the last weekend. If Cowboys beat the Buccaneers and lose to the Eagles, their record will be 8-7 going into that last weekend. Even if the Cowboys win week 17, both teams will be tied with a 9-7 record. In that circumstance, the Cowboys and Giants would have split their two games, so the head-to-head record does not break the tie. The next tiebreaker is division record and both would be tied at 3-3. The teams would have split with each other and the Giants will have also split with Eagles and Redskins while Cowboys would have swept the Redskins and would have been swept by the Eagles.
In the past, the next tiebreaker was conference record, but this year, they dropped that one slot and moved record against common opponents up one notch. The common opponents outside of the division are the 8 games the two teams have played against the NFC West and the AFC East. Giants record in these 8 games would be 6-2 while the Cowboys would be 5-3. If conference record had remained as the higher level tiebreaker, Cowboys would have gotten in with a 7-5 conference record compared to the Giants 5-7 record.
Go Eagles!
Showing posts with label playoff chances. Show all posts
Showing posts with label playoff chances. Show all posts
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Looking Ahead to the 'Fins
I am going with the Coughlin company line: Respect everyone. Fear no one. To build up the Dolphins, I guess you would have to look at their last two weeks and say: (1) they were ahead of the Broncos on the road 15-0 with 4 minutes left in the game, and (2) against the Jets, they were ahead in the first quarter and played good defense against them, until the second half. Wow, I even feel like a coach now. Best thing to say to motivate the Giants is: remember the Seahawks.
Best line I read from a sports writer about this week's game was this: With the new collective bargaining agreement, players are required to get four days off during their bye week. This year, with that rule in place, players have a vacation, travel back to their home and stop paying attention to football. As such, the record of teams coming off the bye this year is 3-9. (Now here's the line I like:) As such, it was real nice of the NFL to schedule the Giants game after their bye against a high school team so they would have a good chance of winning while easing back into the NFL routine.
I was surprised to hear bye-week comments from Gilbride taking Cruz to task. He didn't say much about the plays he has made and the good things he has done, but spoke mostly of his inconsistency, his taking 1 1/2 steps back after he takes two steps forward. Not exactly a motivational uplift for Cruz.
Gilbride, as is everyone on the Giants, is absolutely glowing about the contribution by Jake Ballard. Giants are being honest and not saying that they knew he had it all along, rather saying that he has been a big and pleasant surprise. He is not as fast as Boss, but runs great routes, has a high football IQ, can make YAC yards and NEVER drops a ball. Boss had quite a few drops, despite his productivity. Rumors out of Oakland are that Boss has suffered another concussion.
Speaking of Boss and FA losses by the Giants, anybody still wringing their hands and regretting the loss of Steve Smith? He has 5 catches for 63 yards over the first 6 games. He looks done. Maybe he will come back strong eventually, but it certainly does not look like it's going to be this year. I think Eagles signed Smith more to put a bee in Giants bonnet and create some turmoil and dissension than they did because they thought he could be productive in their offense.
The Giants are not a great team, let's be realistic about that. The defense is in the bottom half of the league and the offense can't run the ball. But I will say this: the Giants have the ingredients, the raw materials to grow and get better as the year goes along. The pass rush is second to none. The DL is strong enough to stop the run. The QB is at the top of his game and he has some dangerous receivers to throw to. The weaknesses on the team: lack of depth at CB, missed assignments by the OL, inexperienced LBs are all things that can be worked on and can get better as the season goes along. Looking down the barrel of a very rough second half schedule, you might say that the NFL schedule maker did the Giants no favors this year. However, with so many changes and the likelihood that the young players and position shifts would require some time to settle in, perhaps it was good that the Giants soft part of the schedule was the first half of the year.
But the statistics don't lie, the schedule is brutal in the second half. Right now,the cumulative record of the teams the Giants will have played through week 8 (including upcoming game against Miami) is 12-30. By contrast the cumulative record of the teams the Giants will be playing over the last 9 games of the year stands now at 34-17. Yikes.
To make the playoffs, in my opinion, Giants need to beat Miami this week, then have to win 3 out of 4 of their remaining division games. That would get them to 8 wins. Of the remaining 5 games, against the Packers (home), Patriots (road), Saints (road), 49ers (road) and Jets (road, sort of), Giants would have to win 2 of those games to get to 10 wins. That total would give them a decent chance of making the playoffs. If they can't win 2 out of those 5 games against playoff teams, I don't want them to make the playoffs anyway, because those are the teams they would be playing in the playoffs. Nobody wants to see the Giants squeeze into the playoffs on some tiebreaker and get spanked in the first round.
Best line I read from a sports writer about this week's game was this: With the new collective bargaining agreement, players are required to get four days off during their bye week. This year, with that rule in place, players have a vacation, travel back to their home and stop paying attention to football. As such, the record of teams coming off the bye this year is 3-9. (Now here's the line I like:) As such, it was real nice of the NFL to schedule the Giants game after their bye against a high school team so they would have a good chance of winning while easing back into the NFL routine.
I was surprised to hear bye-week comments from Gilbride taking Cruz to task. He didn't say much about the plays he has made and the good things he has done, but spoke mostly of his inconsistency, his taking 1 1/2 steps back after he takes two steps forward. Not exactly a motivational uplift for Cruz.
Gilbride, as is everyone on the Giants, is absolutely glowing about the contribution by Jake Ballard. Giants are being honest and not saying that they knew he had it all along, rather saying that he has been a big and pleasant surprise. He is not as fast as Boss, but runs great routes, has a high football IQ, can make YAC yards and NEVER drops a ball. Boss had quite a few drops, despite his productivity. Rumors out of Oakland are that Boss has suffered another concussion.
Speaking of Boss and FA losses by the Giants, anybody still wringing their hands and regretting the loss of Steve Smith? He has 5 catches for 63 yards over the first 6 games. He looks done. Maybe he will come back strong eventually, but it certainly does not look like it's going to be this year. I think Eagles signed Smith more to put a bee in Giants bonnet and create some turmoil and dissension than they did because they thought he could be productive in their offense.
The Giants are not a great team, let's be realistic about that. The defense is in the bottom half of the league and the offense can't run the ball. But I will say this: the Giants have the ingredients, the raw materials to grow and get better as the year goes along. The pass rush is second to none. The DL is strong enough to stop the run. The QB is at the top of his game and he has some dangerous receivers to throw to. The weaknesses on the team: lack of depth at CB, missed assignments by the OL, inexperienced LBs are all things that can be worked on and can get better as the season goes along. Looking down the barrel of a very rough second half schedule, you might say that the NFL schedule maker did the Giants no favors this year. However, with so many changes and the likelihood that the young players and position shifts would require some time to settle in, perhaps it was good that the Giants soft part of the schedule was the first half of the year.
But the statistics don't lie, the schedule is brutal in the second half. Right now,the cumulative record of the teams the Giants will have played through week 8 (including upcoming game against Miami) is 12-30. By contrast the cumulative record of the teams the Giants will be playing over the last 9 games of the year stands now at 34-17. Yikes.
To make the playoffs, in my opinion, Giants need to beat Miami this week, then have to win 3 out of 4 of their remaining division games. That would get them to 8 wins. Of the remaining 5 games, against the Packers (home), Patriots (road), Saints (road), 49ers (road) and Jets (road, sort of), Giants would have to win 2 of those games to get to 10 wins. That total would give them a decent chance of making the playoffs. If they can't win 2 out of those 5 games against playoff teams, I don't want them to make the playoffs anyway, because those are the teams they would be playing in the playoffs. Nobody wants to see the Giants squeeze into the playoffs on some tiebreaker and get spanked in the first round.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Giants: Eagles and Cowboys were killers
The Cowboys beating the Giants at the new stadium was a killer for the Giants season, but the Eagles really killed the Giants this year. Not only did they sweep the Giants, the second one in the Giants building in one of the most devastating losses in NFL history. But - they lost in their own building to the 2 TD underdog Vikings Tuesday night. Consequently, the slim chance that the Giants had to make the playoffs evaporated. When the Saints won last night against the Falcons, the Giants lost one slim chance to make the playoffs. Their second opportunity was the Bears beating the Packers next weekend and the Giants beating the Redskins. However, with the Eagles losing, the Bears are now locked in to the number 2 seed and have absolutely nothing to play for next week when they play the Packers. Had the Eagles beaten the Vikings, then the Bears would have had to win to lock up the number 2 seed and stay ahead of the Eagles. Now, that is not required by the Bears. The only motivation for the Bears might come if the Falcons lose, because then a Bears win would give them the number 1 seed. However the Falcons are playing the Panthers and it is unlikely they will lose, so the Bears have nothing to play for.
Giants didn't deserve it. They needed to win one of the two games against the Eagles and Packers and failed.
Giants didn't deserve it. They needed to win one of the two games against the Eagles and Packers and failed.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Giants: Playoff Arithmetic
The Giants win over the Vikings was enormously important, inartistic though it might have been. With 9 wins in the bank, it is almost unimaginable that they will not get to 10 in the last game of the year against the Redskins. Washington has nothing to play for, is all beat up with injuries and is not very good besides that. Giants will have everything to play for and Redskins will be going through the motions. Assuming that gets the Giants to 10, it means that if they just split their other two tough games, this week against the Eagles and next week against the Packers, they will get to 11 wins. If I calculate things correctly, they are assured of a playoff spot. If they beat the Eagles and Redskins, they will win the NFC East division title, because then the best the Eagles can do would be to tie the Giants at 11 wins. If so, the Giants will win the tiebreaker with the Eagles on the strength of a better conference record. Giants would be 9-3 in the conference and the Eagles would be 8-4. At that record, the Giants would also have a chance at the second seed in the conference. The Bears would have to win their last 3 games and finish with 12 wins in order to get the second seed, because the Giants beat them and have the head to head tiebreaker. Bears games are interesting - they have the Vikings this week, which they should win since the Vikings do not have a QB to send out on the field. They have the Jets the following week, which looks like a winnable game the way the Jets have been playing the last two weeks. They have the Packers the last week of the season, and the Packers are definitely stumbling now. Bears could definitely win out and get to 12, but if they lose one of their last three, the Giants would get the second seed with 11 wins. If the Giants win all three of their remaining games, they have the second seed guaranteed.
If the Giants lose to the Eagles but beat the Packers and Redskins, they have a very good chance to get the second wild card and be the sixth seed. They would have a tie breaker over Packers with the head to head win. The only other team that could beat them out is the Buccaneers if they win their last 3 games. Giants have tie breakers over them in strength of victory, which is the cumulative record of the teams you have beaten. Since the Bucs have played the 1-12 Panthers and the sub-.500 NFC West, and have not beaten a team with a record over .500, the Giants have that tiebreaker.
Check the NFL tie breakers to make sure I am right.
If the Giants lose to the Eagles but beat the Packers and Redskins, they have a very good chance to get the second wild card and be the sixth seed. They would have a tie breaker over Packers with the head to head win. The only other team that could beat them out is the Buccaneers if they win their last 3 games. Giants have tie breakers over them in strength of victory, which is the cumulative record of the teams you have beaten. Since the Bucs have played the 1-12 Panthers and the sub-.500 NFC West, and have not beaten a team with a record over .500, the Giants have that tiebreaker.
Check the NFL tie breakers to make sure I am right.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Giants: Playoff Forecasts
The Giants did their part this past Sunday by beating the pathetic Redskins, but their main opponents in the NFC playoff race all won, so there was no relative movement of the teams. Technically, because this was a conference win for the Giants, they have the lead in the wild card race, but things change week to week, so it is too early to predict anything tangible. The only team that lost was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they are a game behind the pack at 7-5. Bucs also had a serious blow when they lost their starting CB to injury today.
It looks like the Falcons will win their division and have the best shot at the number 1 seed because of their remaining schedule. They have three nearly sure wins, with two games against the Panthers and one against the Seahawks. The fourth game on their schedule is the Saints. The Saints have a tougher schedule with a game against the underrated Rams, against the Ravens on the road and against the Buccaneers. If the Saints lose one other game, their game against the Falcons won't matter. If the Saints should run the table, I think the Falcons still get tiebreakers over the Saints. So, all in all we can certainly assume that the Falcons will win the NFC South. It looks like the Saints, currently with 9 wins should get one wild card. In the West, the Rams or Seahawks will win the division but there will be no wild card coming from the west.
That means that the Bears and Packers will fight it out for the NFC North; the Giants and Eagles will vie for the NFC East and the loser of those division races will compete with each other for the second wild card. Even though the Bears have a 1 game lead in the NFC-N, they are not a lock to win it over the Packers. Bears have a tough schedule with games against the Patriots, Vikings and Jets, while the Packers play the Lions, Patriots and Giants. The Bears and Packers close against each other. I can certainly see the Bears losing 2 out of the next 3 while the Packers win 2 out of 3. If that happens, the last game of the season between the Packers and Bears in Chicago would be for the NFC-N division title. The loser of that game would then have 10 wins and might not make it in to the playoffs at all.
The easiest path for the Giants to the playoffs is for them to win 3 out of 4 including their 2 division games against the Redskins and Eagles. If that happens, it looks like the Giants would win the division on the third tie breaker, which is conference record. If they were to lose to the Eagles but beat the Packers, they would lose the division to the Eagles but would win the wild card tie breaker against the Packers.
The big question is: what has to happen for the Giants to make the playoffs with only 10 wins? There are too many possibilities to consider, but the Giants have to beat the Eagles for one of their two wins and hope that the Eagles split their two games with the Cowboys. Packers have the Patriots on the road, so there certainly could be a loss for them and a chance for the Giants to pass them in the playoff standings .
Too many permutations and possibilities to really consider what could happen, but f the Giants win 11 they are in. If they get only 10 wins they will need some help from the Patriots, Jets and even the Cowboys.
It looks like the Falcons will win their division and have the best shot at the number 1 seed because of their remaining schedule. They have three nearly sure wins, with two games against the Panthers and one against the Seahawks. The fourth game on their schedule is the Saints. The Saints have a tougher schedule with a game against the underrated Rams, against the Ravens on the road and against the Buccaneers. If the Saints lose one other game, their game against the Falcons won't matter. If the Saints should run the table, I think the Falcons still get tiebreakers over the Saints. So, all in all we can certainly assume that the Falcons will win the NFC South. It looks like the Saints, currently with 9 wins should get one wild card. In the West, the Rams or Seahawks will win the division but there will be no wild card coming from the west.
That means that the Bears and Packers will fight it out for the NFC North; the Giants and Eagles will vie for the NFC East and the loser of those division races will compete with each other for the second wild card. Even though the Bears have a 1 game lead in the NFC-N, they are not a lock to win it over the Packers. Bears have a tough schedule with games against the Patriots, Vikings and Jets, while the Packers play the Lions, Patriots and Giants. The Bears and Packers close against each other. I can certainly see the Bears losing 2 out of the next 3 while the Packers win 2 out of 3. If that happens, the last game of the season between the Packers and Bears in Chicago would be for the NFC-N division title. The loser of that game would then have 10 wins and might not make it in to the playoffs at all.
The easiest path for the Giants to the playoffs is for them to win 3 out of 4 including their 2 division games against the Redskins and Eagles. If that happens, it looks like the Giants would win the division on the third tie breaker, which is conference record. If they were to lose to the Eagles but beat the Packers, they would lose the division to the Eagles but would win the wild card tie breaker against the Packers.
The big question is: what has to happen for the Giants to make the playoffs with only 10 wins? There are too many possibilities to consider, but the Giants have to beat the Eagles for one of their two wins and hope that the Eagles split their two games with the Cowboys. Packers have the Patriots on the road, so there certainly could be a loss for them and a chance for the Giants to pass them in the playoff standings .
Too many permutations and possibilities to really consider what could happen, but f the Giants win 11 they are in. If they get only 10 wins they will need some help from the Patriots, Jets and even the Cowboys.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Giants: Playoff arithmetic
It's too early to start writing down playoff scenarios, like: who has to beat whom to make the playoffs, which teams are a lock, which teams are on the outside, which games are critical etc. But the fascinating thing about this year is that there are no teams that have elevated themselves way above the rest of the league, which has some interesting consequences. First, the playoff races will probably go down to the wire and even more so, the seeding in each conference will not be settled for a while either. Last year the Colts were undefeated and gave the Jets their playoff life by pulling their starters in the 15th game of the season. That is not likely to happen this year, although it is possible that the Falcons could pull away a bit because of their schedule. In the NFC, only one of the playoff contenders, Falcons, has 9 wins. Only two, Saints and Bears, have 8 wins and four other teams, Giants, Eagles, Packers and Buccaneers have 7 wins. Making this more interesting is that the very weak NFC West does not have a team over .500 so they will contribute only their division winner to the playoffs and do not have a team that will compete for the wild card. Confusing the actual playoff picture is how many games there are left between these playoff contenders themselves.
Everyone is now anointing the Falcons as the cream of the crop in the NFC, but there is something that should be considered in this analysis. There are a few principles that we need to consider when it comes to analyzing the strength of these teams and the "power rankings". First is the hallowed Parcells-ism: "you are what your record says you are". Even though I understand that and I accept it, you still have to realize that a team wins when it plays a team that is weaker than it is. And even though you can't control the schedule, a team will have a better record when it plays a whole schedule of weaker teams than it would if it played a schedule of strong teams. This is not rocket science, it kind of borrows from the BCS method and considers strength of schedule when considering bowl invitations and national championships in college football.
The other principle we have to be aware of is: it's not who you play, it's when you play 'em. Just look at the Dallas Cowboys, the Tennessee Titans or the Indianapolis Colts for examples. Would you rather have played the Cowboys when Phillips was coaching them and they were 1-7 or when Garrett is coaching them, they have a brief revival and are 2-1 since he took over? For the Titans, would you rather have played them earlier in the year when Vince Young and Kerry Collins were both healthy or now when they don't have a QB to send out on the field? Would you rather have played the Colts in week 2 when the Giants played them or now after they have sent 11 players to IR? Of course every team has its ups and downs during the season and its waves of injuries, and it is fortune and the NFL schedule maker that lines your team up against another on a particular week of the NFL season, but it still influences whether you win or lose.
In that context, when you look at the NFC this year, you see three fairly strong divisions and one really weak one. The NFC North has the strong Packers and Bears plus a talented but dysfunctional Vikings. The NFC South has three strong teams in the Falcons, Saints and Buccaneers. The NFC East is similar to the NFC North in that it has two good teams in the Giants and Eagles along with one talented but somewhat dysfunctional team in the Cowboys. (It is interesting that the only two NFL teams to fire coaches in mid-season are these two teams that I characterized as dysfunctional, flawed might be a better description, but the two teams coincidentally both won playoff games last year.) The NFC West is weak with the division winner possibly coming in with a losing record.
The reason I bring this up is that the NFC South played the NFC West this year, while the NFC East and NFC North played each other. The record of the NFC South against the West is 9-2, with even the lame Panthers getting their only win of the year against the West. Each of the 3 South teams in the playoff hunt has one game left against the West which you can probably chalk up as a win and a leg up in the playoff race. I know "you are what your record says you are", but strength of schedule counts. I'm just saying.
There are so many inter-playoff-contender games that it's not possible to say who really has the advantage now. Falcons have two left against the Panthers and one against the Seahawks, so that definitely puts them in strong position to get to at least 12 wins, a high playoff seed and a bye.
Looking at the Giants schedule, they have 3 winnable games on their schedule. Plain and simple: they have to win them. The tougher games (Eagles and Packers) will also go along way to determine if they make the playoffs. We will know a lot more about the Giants chances after this weekend and yet more after next weekend. We will do some analysis each week to see how the NFC playoff picture unfolds.
Everyone is now anointing the Falcons as the cream of the crop in the NFC, but there is something that should be considered in this analysis. There are a few principles that we need to consider when it comes to analyzing the strength of these teams and the "power rankings". First is the hallowed Parcells-ism: "you are what your record says you are". Even though I understand that and I accept it, you still have to realize that a team wins when it plays a team that is weaker than it is. And even though you can't control the schedule, a team will have a better record when it plays a whole schedule of weaker teams than it would if it played a schedule of strong teams. This is not rocket science, it kind of borrows from the BCS method and considers strength of schedule when considering bowl invitations and national championships in college football.
The other principle we have to be aware of is: it's not who you play, it's when you play 'em. Just look at the Dallas Cowboys, the Tennessee Titans or the Indianapolis Colts for examples. Would you rather have played the Cowboys when Phillips was coaching them and they were 1-7 or when Garrett is coaching them, they have a brief revival and are 2-1 since he took over? For the Titans, would you rather have played them earlier in the year when Vince Young and Kerry Collins were both healthy or now when they don't have a QB to send out on the field? Would you rather have played the Colts in week 2 when the Giants played them or now after they have sent 11 players to IR? Of course every team has its ups and downs during the season and its waves of injuries, and it is fortune and the NFL schedule maker that lines your team up against another on a particular week of the NFL season, but it still influences whether you win or lose.
In that context, when you look at the NFC this year, you see three fairly strong divisions and one really weak one. The NFC North has the strong Packers and Bears plus a talented but dysfunctional Vikings. The NFC South has three strong teams in the Falcons, Saints and Buccaneers. The NFC East is similar to the NFC North in that it has two good teams in the Giants and Eagles along with one talented but somewhat dysfunctional team in the Cowboys. (It is interesting that the only two NFL teams to fire coaches in mid-season are these two teams that I characterized as dysfunctional, flawed might be a better description, but the two teams coincidentally both won playoff games last year.) The NFC West is weak with the division winner possibly coming in with a losing record.
The reason I bring this up is that the NFC South played the NFC West this year, while the NFC East and NFC North played each other. The record of the NFC South against the West is 9-2, with even the lame Panthers getting their only win of the year against the West. Each of the 3 South teams in the playoff hunt has one game left against the West which you can probably chalk up as a win and a leg up in the playoff race. I know "you are what your record says you are", but strength of schedule counts. I'm just saying.
There are so many inter-playoff-contender games that it's not possible to say who really has the advantage now. Falcons have two left against the Panthers and one against the Seahawks, so that definitely puts them in strong position to get to at least 12 wins, a high playoff seed and a bye.
Looking at the Giants schedule, they have 3 winnable games on their schedule. Plain and simple: they have to win them. The tougher games (Eagles and Packers) will also go along way to determine if they make the playoffs. We will know a lot more about the Giants chances after this weekend and yet more after next weekend. We will do some analysis each week to see how the NFC playoff picture unfolds.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Giants: Playoff hopes
What follows is a lesson in conditional probability and when to discard theory in favor of practical reality. The Giants are one game behind the Packers and Cowboys for the last wildcard spot and own the tiebreaker against both of them. Therefore, they need to win one more game than one of these two teams in order to make the playoffs. Put another way, both the Cowboys and the Packers need to win both of their games in order to shut the Giants out. In the abstract, suppose each game were a coin flip with a 50% chance of each team winning. Then the probability of all four games going against the Giants, i.e.both Packers and Cowboys going 2-0, would be 1/2 raised to the 4th power, or 1/16, which equals 6.25%. Those are pretty good odds for the Giants to have a window open to the playoffs. However, these games are clearly not coin flips, with each team having an equal chance of winning. Packers will be heavy favorites in both games and Cowboys will be heavily favored in one of their games. For arguments sake, let's install the Packers and Cowboys as prohibitive favorites in all 4 games and give them a 75% chance of winning each of the 4 games. In that case, the overall probability of both teams winning both of their games, is only 31.6%. If we were to lower the probability a little bit and assign the favorites a 60% chance of winning each game, then the probability of both teams winning out goes way down to 12.9%. From a purely mathematical point of view, then, if the Giants win their last two games, they would have a good chance of getting in.
However, you have to look a little closer at the matchups in each of these games and decide what the chances are for the opponents to win one of those games. Here are the relevant games on the schedule:
Vikings Schedule
Vikings @ Bears Monday night
Giants @ Vikings
Cowboys Schedule
Cowboys @ Redskins Sunday night
Eagles @ Cowboys
Packers Schedule
Seahawks @ Packers
Packers @ Cardinals
Giants Schedule
Panthers @ Giants
Giants @ Vikings
Eagles Schedule
Broncos @ Eagles
Eagles @ Cowboys
Let's look at the Packers first. Their first game is against the awful Seahawks, who are 5-9, have absolutely nothing to play for and got crushed at home last week by the 1-12 Buccaneers. Even though I assigned a nominal probability of them to beat the Packers of 25%, it is realistically quite a bit lower than that. The Packers last game of the season is on the road against the Cardinals. If this game were in the middle of the season, I would give the Cardinals a good chance to win. But Arizona has 9 wins and, unless the Vikings lose to the Bears this week, they are locked into the 4th seed in the NFC. They will surely rest Warner, Fitzgerald and some of their other starters who may be a little nicked up. This is especially true, because if the Packers make the playoffs, it is extremely likely that the Cardinals and Packers will meet in the first round, which means that they would play each other two consecutive weeks. Why then, would the Cardinals play their starters against the Packers in the last week of the season and let the Packers players get a read on how to play them. The Cardinals will probably mail it in on that last week of the season against the Packers.
Next, let's look at the Cowboys remaining games. They play the Redskins on the road next Sunday night and considering how awful the Redskins looked against the Giants Monday night, it's hard to imagine that they will put up much of a fight, no matter what happened the first time these two teams met. Cowboys are playing much better now after beating the Saints last week. Even if you assert that the Saints level of play has declined somewhat the last few weeks, the Cowboys played well and confidently and have surely broken the doldrums of their December curse. That means the best chance for the Cowboys to lose and the best chance for the Giants to make the playoffs is for the Cowboys to lose the last week of the season to the Eagles in Dallas. The Eagles will have some motivation to win that game and will probably not lay down. If the Eagles were to lose to the Cowboys, it would mean that the Cowboys would win the division and the Eagles would be only a wildcard. Consequently, the Eagles would not host a home playoff game and would have to go on the road in the first round. In fact, a likely matchup for the Eagles would be the Cowboys, if both teams make the playoffs. This means that, as with the Packers-Cardinals, the teams would play each other two weeks in a row, in week 17 and in the first round of the playoffs. Eagles, then have a lot to play for: if they lose to the Cowboys, they would have to play the Cowboys again in Dallas. On the other hand, if they beat the Cowboys, they would get to play the Giants in Philadelphia, a team they have handled 4 times in a row. Their motivation would be high, since the playoff matchups would be much better for them if they win.
All of this is predicated on the fact that the Giants will win their last two games, far from a certainty. In the remote circumstance that the Bears beat the Vikings this Monday night, then (assuming the Cardinals beat the Rams in week 16) the Vikings and the Cardinals would be only 1 game apart going into the last week. If the Giants beat the Vikings, then the Cardinals would have great motivation to beat the Packers. In this scenario, the Cardinals and Vikings would then be tied at 11-5 and since the Cardinals own the head-to-head tiebreaker having beaten them in week 13, they would be elevated into the 2 seed, which would give them a bye in the first round and a home game in the second round. Root for the Bears agains the ikings this weekend.
Returning to the probability model above, let's assign the following probabilities to the Cowboys and Packers winning their last two games.
Cowboys vs. Redskins: Probablity of Cowboys winning = 75%
Cowboys vs. Eagles: Probability of Cowboys winning = 55%
Packers vs. Seahawks: Probability of Packers winning = 90%
Packers vs. Cardnials: Probability of Packers winning = 90%
If you accept the above probabilites for each individual game, then the cumulative probability of both Packers and Cowboys going 2-0 and closing the window on the Giants playoff hopes is 30.375%. In other words, if the Giants win both their games, they have a nearly 70% chance of making the playoffs.
My head hurts from all these mathematical calculations. Giants have to win out and hope something good happens for them. The weirdest possible result of this NFC playoff race would be if both wildcard games would be repeats of week 17 matchups: Cardinals-Packers and Eagles-Cowboys.
However, you have to look a little closer at the matchups in each of these games and decide what the chances are for the opponents to win one of those games. Here are the relevant games on the schedule:
Vikings Schedule
Vikings @ Bears Monday night
Giants @ Vikings
Cowboys Schedule
Cowboys @ Redskins Sunday night
Eagles @ Cowboys
Packers Schedule
Seahawks @ Packers
Packers @ Cardinals
Giants Schedule
Panthers @ Giants
Giants @ Vikings
Eagles Schedule
Broncos @ Eagles
Eagles @ Cowboys
Let's look at the Packers first. Their first game is against the awful Seahawks, who are 5-9, have absolutely nothing to play for and got crushed at home last week by the 1-12 Buccaneers. Even though I assigned a nominal probability of them to beat the Packers of 25%, it is realistically quite a bit lower than that. The Packers last game of the season is on the road against the Cardinals. If this game were in the middle of the season, I would give the Cardinals a good chance to win. But Arizona has 9 wins and, unless the Vikings lose to the Bears this week, they are locked into the 4th seed in the NFC. They will surely rest Warner, Fitzgerald and some of their other starters who may be a little nicked up. This is especially true, because if the Packers make the playoffs, it is extremely likely that the Cardinals and Packers will meet in the first round, which means that they would play each other two consecutive weeks. Why then, would the Cardinals play their starters against the Packers in the last week of the season and let the Packers players get a read on how to play them. The Cardinals will probably mail it in on that last week of the season against the Packers.
Next, let's look at the Cowboys remaining games. They play the Redskins on the road next Sunday night and considering how awful the Redskins looked against the Giants Monday night, it's hard to imagine that they will put up much of a fight, no matter what happened the first time these two teams met. Cowboys are playing much better now after beating the Saints last week. Even if you assert that the Saints level of play has declined somewhat the last few weeks, the Cowboys played well and confidently and have surely broken the doldrums of their December curse. That means the best chance for the Cowboys to lose and the best chance for the Giants to make the playoffs is for the Cowboys to lose the last week of the season to the Eagles in Dallas. The Eagles will have some motivation to win that game and will probably not lay down. If the Eagles were to lose to the Cowboys, it would mean that the Cowboys would win the division and the Eagles would be only a wildcard. Consequently, the Eagles would not host a home playoff game and would have to go on the road in the first round. In fact, a likely matchup for the Eagles would be the Cowboys, if both teams make the playoffs. This means that, as with the Packers-Cardinals, the teams would play each other two weeks in a row, in week 17 and in the first round of the playoffs. Eagles, then have a lot to play for: if they lose to the Cowboys, they would have to play the Cowboys again in Dallas. On the other hand, if they beat the Cowboys, they would get to play the Giants in Philadelphia, a team they have handled 4 times in a row. Their motivation would be high, since the playoff matchups would be much better for them if they win.
All of this is predicated on the fact that the Giants will win their last two games, far from a certainty. In the remote circumstance that the Bears beat the Vikings this Monday night, then (assuming the Cardinals beat the Rams in week 16) the Vikings and the Cardinals would be only 1 game apart going into the last week. If the Giants beat the Vikings, then the Cardinals would have great motivation to beat the Packers. In this scenario, the Cardinals and Vikings would then be tied at 11-5 and since the Cardinals own the head-to-head tiebreaker having beaten them in week 13, they would be elevated into the 2 seed, which would give them a bye in the first round and a home game in the second round. Root for the Bears agains the ikings this weekend.
Returning to the probability model above, let's assign the following probabilities to the Cowboys and Packers winning their last two games.
Cowboys vs. Redskins: Probablity of Cowboys winning = 75%
Cowboys vs. Eagles: Probability of Cowboys winning = 55%
Packers vs. Seahawks: Probability of Packers winning = 90%
Packers vs. Cardnials: Probability of Packers winning = 90%
If you accept the above probabilites for each individual game, then the cumulative probability of both Packers and Cowboys going 2-0 and closing the window on the Giants playoff hopes is 30.375%. In other words, if the Giants win both their games, they have a nearly 70% chance of making the playoffs.
My head hurts from all these mathematical calculations. Giants have to win out and hope something good happens for them. The weirdest possible result of this NFC playoff race would be if both wildcard games would be repeats of week 17 matchups: Cardinals-Packers and Eagles-Cowboys.
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