Look Ahead to the Cowboys

This is such a tough game to figure, there are so many variables that are in play.

Was the Eagles game an indication that the Giants are coming back down to earth after their torrid first 3/4 of the season, or was it just one of those games... Eagles with their season on the line, windy conditions disrupting the Giants passing game, a couple of key dropped passes. Or... is the loss of Burress something that disrupts the balance in the Giants offense, giving opposing defenses a method to stop the Giants.

Are the Cowboys the same wounded, dangerous, desperate team that the Eagles were last week and ready to lay a beating on a suddenly shaky Giants team. Or... will the Cowboys continue what some think is becoming a pattern for them in big games against tough teams: they play well enough to show how talented they are, but find some way to make some key errors and lose.

Obviously, Las Vegas feels the same way, because the Cowboys are 3 point favorites. The game is in Dallas and the home field usually counts for 3 points in Vegas, so the game is essentially even. I find this a little strange, a first place team playing a team with 5 losses is an underdog. But it shows how far Giants have fallen in the eyes of the betting public and Las Vegas because of the events of the last two weeks, including Burress and the loss to the Eagles. The line hasn't budged since it was set, meaning that the betting public isn't putting too much money on one team or the other

It's funny how things turn around so quickly in the NFL. Three weeks ago it looked like the Eagles were done and the Redskins, Cowboys and Giants were the cream of the NFC East. Now, the Cowboys look like they have all kinds of internal dissension with TO (that stands for Team Obliterater, not Terrel Owens) picking on the qb for making bad decisions, the owner sniping at the teams star RB for being soft, the coach generally getting no respect from the players and all kinds of injury problems. The Redskins offense has totally disintegrated in the past 3-4 weeks and on top of that, their OL is decimated by injuries with their two starting OTs, Samuels and Jensen out for the year, the star RB Portis feuding with the coach and the team on a losing streak. Giants have their own problems with the Burress mess and (gasp) a game they actually lost. Suddenly, it looks like the Eagles are the most stable franchise in the division and are coming hard for a playoff spot. If Eagles win their last 3 games and Falcons don't, then the Eagles are in the playoffs.

Back to the Giants-Cowboys game:

I actually think that in analyzing this game, we should not overemphasize the emotional, impossible-to-measure aspects of the game like motivation and focus/concentration and stick to the things we can measure and evaluate.

Cowboys defense is solid, but not great. Defenses are usually ranked by yardage allowed which is not the best way to measure them. There are many other things to look it, so let's just say that the Cowboys defense is ranked in the upper half of the league in both run defense and pass defense. Their front 7 in their 3-4 scheme has some very good players and it is central to their defensive scheme to stop the run and get a big pass rush, rather than rely on their db-field to cover. DeMarcus Ware at OLB, is a very good player with 16 sacks on the year. Ratliff is very good on the interior of their DL and Bradie James is a very good ILB. Often the NT in the 3-4 scheme does not make a lot of tackles, but is responsible for stuffing opposing blockers and preventing them from getting to the next level and firing out on the LBs. But Ratliff makes a lot of plays in the running game himself and is having a very good year. IMO, the Cowboys db-field is not that good and they have some injuries there as well, which make their secondary somewhat vulnerable. I am sure the Giants will try to establish the run, but it may be smart to come out throwing against the weakest part of the Cowboys defense. In order for the Giants to win, Eli has to move the ball through the air and they have to involve new WRs and routes in order to be effective. The LBs are fairly quick in their drops and they do like to blitz quite a bit. The key to beating any defense is to block their DL, but it is certainly true against the Cowboys, because the front 7 is the real heart of the defense and the key to their stopping the run and the pass.

Against the Giants defense, Cowboys will probably try to run the ball a little bit, even with rookie RB Choice replacing Marion Barber. I was impressed with Choice when the Cowboys came in to the Meadowlands earlier this year. He is very quick and elusive and made some good runs against the Giants defense in the second half of that game. Last week against the Steelers, Choice had a particularly good game, with some good runs and some very good pass receptions out of the backfield. He put up more than 160 yards from scrimmage. But I expect them to put the ball in Romo's hands and try to throw the ball down the field especially to their TE Witten. Giants had trouble defending TEs in the middle of the field last year but seemed to have improved this year with improved play of their safeties. But last week, the Eagles effectively attacked the middle of the field with throws to LJ Smith and Westbrook. I look for Romo to try and do the same this week to Witten and their new TE Martellus Bennet, who looks like a real good player. Giants need a big game out of their LBs and S in pass coverage this week.

Hixon has a foot injury and it could really hurt the Giants passing attack if he is out. If he plays well and if the Giants use their other WRs, I expect that the passing game will be effective and the Giants have a good chance this week in Dallas.

You can't really say that this is a huge game for the Giants in the standings or even in the playoff seeding competition. Giants can lose and if they beat Carolina next week, they will lock up the #1 seed. If Carolina loses this week and Giants win, then the Carolina game next week becomes a little less important because Giants can lose that game and still carry the # 1 seed if the beat the Vikings in the last game of the season. If Giants win 1 of their last 3 games they will guarantee a bye in the first round, though not necessarily # 1 seed. If they lose all 3, they will need help to get a bye in the first round: they will need the Vikings to lose 1 of their last 3. It would be nice to get the # 1 seed, but I wouldn't mind seeing the Giants go on the road and playing in warmer weather against any of the NFC teams that might make the playoffs.

Because of the fact that this game is important only for mental health of the team and not a do-or-die game for making the playoffs or even for seeding in the playoffs, I would be smart and cautious with slightly injured players. To me that means that Jacobs sits this week and maybe next week to get ready for the playoffs.