Giants offense has been good all year, but how will they handle going against a real good defense next week in SF. Last few weeks Giants offense has performed very well, but has gone against weak defenses in the Packers, Falcons and the Cowboys. Statistically the Packers are rated the worst defense in the league, but I think the Cowboys are much worse. Packers give up a lot of yards, but get a lot of INTs and are more or less in the middle of the league when it comes to points allowed. Ignoring the statistics, it looked like the Packers made a few plays and got a few stops here and there on defense, while in the last week of the season against the Cowboys, it just looked like the Giants could move the ball easily against the FRR (Fat Rob Ryan) defense. Falcons defense is not that bad and Giants offense did well only in the second half. The week before the Cowboys game, Giants played the Jets, who have a good defense and the Giants did not have a good offensive game at all. Giants need to play well offensively against the 49ers and I hope the weather does not interfere.
In the last 4 weeks, Giants have beaten Rex Ryan (Jets HC) , Rob Ryan (Cowboys DC) , Matt Ryan (Falcons QB) and Ryan Grant (Packers RB). Bad news people - 49ers don't have anyone named "Ryan" on their team. Maybe the receptionist?
Giants franchise record in conference championship games and Super Bowl games is 7-1, with 4-0 record in the conference championships.
Antrel Rolle is playing better and better as the year is going along. He has really sacrificed, moving for the good of the team from his natural S position and is playing a lot of nickel CB coverage. His tackling has gotten very sure, he almost never misses a tackle and makes some very good stops rarely giving up yards after contact.
It's a funny thing - both teams in the conference championship game wanted this match up and would have chosen this opponent to play. 49ers did not want to travel to Green Bay, play the number one seed and would prefer to stay at home. Giants would prefer to play the 49ers than traveling to play the speedy Saints in their dome, even though they won't admit it. For the Giants, both games would be a road games, but they lost in the regular season by one TD to the 49ers and lost by about 100 to the Saints. Let's see who is happy with their chosen opponent.
Harbaugh looks to me like he is an excellent coach. He has taken the same team that was on the bottom of the NFC Western division for several years, resurrected the career of the QB, instituted some order and organization, coached 'em up, captured the second seed and is now in the conference championship game. Thinking back to that first SF game, Harbaugh broke several tendencies and really surprised the Giants coaches. For one thing, SF had been running the ball on everyone and Giants defense came in with a plan to stop Gore and their running game. Instead, SF came out and seems like they passed on every first down against the Giants base defense. Giants finally adjusted, but it was a very good move. He also called the surprise onside kickoff wich worked and gave his team an extra possession. In that second half, a turnover killed the Giants. Following the turnover Harbaugh called a play to Vernon Davis out of a different formation than they usually use, the Giants defense got confused, blew a coverage (they did that then) and it went for a TD. It was the formation and play call that fooled the Giants, which is all coaching.
Speaking of coaching - everything McCarthy tried last Sunday turned to garbage. First half onside kickoff failed, although it didn't really kill him because Packers blocked the FG attempt. Fourth quarter onside kickoff also was recovered by Giants although that was not as bad as everyone made it out to be. It's true that the Giants gained 30 yards of field position, because they got the ball at midfield instead of their own 20. But the Packers were still in position to make a stop by the defense and get the ball back. The other coaching calls that failed were the 4th and 5 try early in 4th quarter, which was an important turning point. Green Bay's other coaching mistake was not being prepared for the Hail Mary at the end of the half. As I said in earlier post, Packers were defending a sideline throw not a deep ball and the catch by Nicks was easier than it should have been. Bad defensive call by Packers coaching staff.
Showing posts with label 2011 packers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 packers. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Giants: Packers odds and ends
Have you noticed the Giants players suddenly spouting great love, admiration and strong belief in Coughlin as a tough, smart leader of men? What a change from the last several years. Everybody knows about the well advertised change Coughlin made in 2007 where he became a little softer, got to know the players better and did not live only by the motto of firm, fair and demanding. The players accepted him a little bit more but still did not show love and admiration. I can't help thinking that part of what has changed was the sharp contrast the players see from the coach on the other side of town. Rex Ryan took the town by storm his first two years. Players talked about how he's a player's coach; how they love him and love to play for him. But his brash style, his empty promises, failed guarantees and his immature juvenile behavior (giving the finger to people at some event in Miami, cursing at fans, getting into trash talking in the media with opposing players and not knowing what is going on in his own locker room) is simply beneath the dignity of a man who is supposed to lead other men. The foot fetish thing may not have helped him too much either. The strong contrast between someone who is so low class like Ryan and Coughlin, who exudes professionalism, preparation and treats his players like professionals, not like beer buddies at a bar, may have finally opened some players eyes. This is the persona that they want their coach to portray.
The OL play has still been somewhat spotty, with the Giants running game very inconsistent. Don't look at the total number of yards that the Giants gained on the day; look instead at the number of running plays that went for less than 2 yards or negative yards. Giants broke a few big running plays that made the number look better but still did not have a good looking ground game. As my brother likes to say - don't look at the average yards per carry, look also at the standard deviation. (Statistics class will start in 15 minutes). While the run game was not so good, the pass blocking was very good, especially this past Sunday against an average Packers DL. Having said that, I finished reviewing the DVR of the Packers game (for about the 4th time) and have to say the following to limit the bashing of the OL. Giants RBs missed several holes and several easy cutback runs that could have gone for very nice yardage. They did not have good vision for finding those holes on Sunday and I don't know why. There were also a few plays where Matthews guessed where the running play was going and jumped across the line before the play could develop making it difficult to block even for a great OL. I would like to see Gilbride next year get a "run coordinator" to improve the effectiveness and deception of the running game. A new, fast RB might not hurt either.
I loved the aggressive play call by Gilbride in the 4th quarter to seal the game. Giants had the ball with 4 + minutes left after recovering the onside kick. Two runs to Bradshaw for no gain forced the Packers to spend their timeouts leaving Giants with a 3rd and 11. Instead of playing conservative, running on third down and punting, Eli threw a dart to Cruz in the middle of the field for a first down that closed the game. Packers must have sensed it was over, because Giants tacked on 2 long runs, one by Bradshaw for about 25 and then the 10 yard TD run by Jacobs for Giants last score.
Rodgers has a cannon for an arm and is a very accurate passer. He is a great runner and throws well on the run, but I did not really see him show great touch on any of his throws Sunday like Eli seems to have. All Rodgers throws were lasers and when the timing of the play is slightly off, those rockets can be hard to catch. Eli knows when to take some juice off the ball and when to float a feathery throw over the LBs and in front of the DBs. I am not saying Eli is better than Rodgers, I am just saying that I am very happy with our QB.
Speaking about Rodgers, he seems like a real arrogant, front running jerk. In his press conference after the game he talked about how disappointed he was, what a great season he (not the team?) had and did not give any credit to the Giants. He just said - when you turn it over and drop passes (i.e. all everybody else's fault on the team) that's when you lose. I also did not see him be professional and congratulate the opposing QB after the game ended. Eli was wandering around by himself.
Aside form the bad calls the refs did make, there were some terrible penalties that they ignored. Particularly, there were two late hits on Eli, one when he was smacked in the face mask and another when he was hit late AND thrown violently to the ground.
I know I expect Osi off the team next year and I was nervous about him coming back and disrupting the flow of the JPP and the other DEs, but I have to admit he is playing very well and Fewell is using him perfectly. Notwithstanding, this Sunday against the run oriented 49ers, he should play a slightly lesser role, especialyl if it is bad weather. We should see a slightly heavier does of Tuck at DE with Canty, Joseph and Bernard playing DT.
MacKenzie played a very good game against the fast disruptive Packers OLB, Matthews. He made a few plays, but was kept under control most of the day.
The OL play has still been somewhat spotty, with the Giants running game very inconsistent. Don't look at the total number of yards that the Giants gained on the day; look instead at the number of running plays that went for less than 2 yards or negative yards. Giants broke a few big running plays that made the number look better but still did not have a good looking ground game. As my brother likes to say - don't look at the average yards per carry, look also at the standard deviation. (Statistics class will start in 15 minutes). While the run game was not so good, the pass blocking was very good, especially this past Sunday against an average Packers DL. Having said that, I finished reviewing the DVR of the Packers game (for about the 4th time) and have to say the following to limit the bashing of the OL. Giants RBs missed several holes and several easy cutback runs that could have gone for very nice yardage. They did not have good vision for finding those holes on Sunday and I don't know why. There were also a few plays where Matthews guessed where the running play was going and jumped across the line before the play could develop making it difficult to block even for a great OL. I would like to see Gilbride next year get a "run coordinator" to improve the effectiveness and deception of the running game. A new, fast RB might not hurt either.
I loved the aggressive play call by Gilbride in the 4th quarter to seal the game. Giants had the ball with 4 + minutes left after recovering the onside kick. Two runs to Bradshaw for no gain forced the Packers to spend their timeouts leaving Giants with a 3rd and 11. Instead of playing conservative, running on third down and punting, Eli threw a dart to Cruz in the middle of the field for a first down that closed the game. Packers must have sensed it was over, because Giants tacked on 2 long runs, one by Bradshaw for about 25 and then the 10 yard TD run by Jacobs for Giants last score.
Rodgers has a cannon for an arm and is a very accurate passer. He is a great runner and throws well on the run, but I did not really see him show great touch on any of his throws Sunday like Eli seems to have. All Rodgers throws were lasers and when the timing of the play is slightly off, those rockets can be hard to catch. Eli knows when to take some juice off the ball and when to float a feathery throw over the LBs and in front of the DBs. I am not saying Eli is better than Rodgers, I am just saying that I am very happy with our QB.
Speaking about Rodgers, he seems like a real arrogant, front running jerk. In his press conference after the game he talked about how disappointed he was, what a great season he (not the team?) had and did not give any credit to the Giants. He just said - when you turn it over and drop passes (i.e. all everybody else's fault on the team) that's when you lose. I also did not see him be professional and congratulate the opposing QB after the game ended. Eli was wandering around by himself.
Aside form the bad calls the refs did make, there were some terrible penalties that they ignored. Particularly, there were two late hits on Eli, one when he was smacked in the face mask and another when he was hit late AND thrown violently to the ground.
I know I expect Osi off the team next year and I was nervous about him coming back and disrupting the flow of the JPP and the other DEs, but I have to admit he is playing very well and Fewell is using him perfectly. Notwithstanding, this Sunday against the run oriented 49ers, he should play a slightly lesser role, especialyl if it is bad weather. We should see a slightly heavier does of Tuck at DE with Canty, Joseph and Bernard playing DT.
MacKenzie played a very good game against the fast disruptive Packers OLB, Matthews. He made a few plays, but was kept under control most of the day.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Giants: Packers - home field advantage
Every team likes to play at home feeling they have a home field advantage. This manifests itself in several ways - the home crowd gets behind the team, screaming and cheering tumultuously, charging up the emotions of the home team in what everyone agrees is an emotional sport. Occasionally the loud cheering can disrupt the opponent's offense and lead to a few false start penalties or lack of communication between the QB and his players in case he wants to change the play at the line of scrimmage. Finally, the cheering can sometimes influence the referees and the home team will get the benefit of the doubt on a few close calls. I am not a conspiracy theorist, but it sure seems like the Giants rarely get the favor of those home town calls when they are at home, but they suffer through them on the road. As a simple example, against the Falcons, the Giants pass rush was dominant yet the Falcons did not get called for a single offensive holding call. Nicks was held all over the place on a pass at the goal line, but PI or defensive holding was not called. By contrast, the Giants interior OL got called for several very soft holding calls which were questionable at best. In the Packers game at Met Life Stadium earlier this year, there were several calls that should have and certainly could have gone in the Giants favor, but were called instead for the Packers. The worst of these calls were the bobbled TD pass by Jennings in the end zone and the illegal contact call on Jacquian Williams, when in fact Finley pushed off Williams. I think that the NFL has become such a national TV sport, that a team like the Packers that gets national attention may get benefit of calls even on the road. Consequently when they are at home Sunday and have the additional benefit of the crowd noise, I am really concerned that they will get a few calls making it harder for the Giants to win.
I recall the conference championship game in Green Bay in 2007 and there are a few calls then that favored Green Bay. For one thing, the 90 yard TD pass that Driver caught in the first half, when Corey Webster "fell down". Actually, Driver put both hands on Websters shoulders and threw him to the ground in his release form the line of scrimmage. In the second half, Giants stopped Packers on a 3rd down but Sam Madison was called for a personal foul after the play was over - he was wrestling with a Green bay RB, who initiated the late contact, but fell down in the tussle, so the flag went against Madison. Packers scored a TD to go ahead on the next play. Giants ultimately won, of course, but it was not easy. It's hard enough to win on a level playing field. Let's hope the guys in the striped jerseys aren't calling the game for the Packers.
I recall the conference championship game in Green Bay in 2007 and there are a few calls then that favored Green Bay. For one thing, the 90 yard TD pass that Driver caught in the first half, when Corey Webster "fell down". Actually, Driver put both hands on Websters shoulders and threw him to the ground in his release form the line of scrimmage. In the second half, Giants stopped Packers on a 3rd down but Sam Madison was called for a personal foul after the play was over - he was wrestling with a Green bay RB, who initiated the late contact, but fell down in the tussle, so the flag went against Madison. Packers scored a TD to go ahead on the next play. Giants ultimately won, of course, but it was not easy. It's hard enough to win on a level playing field. Let's hope the guys in the striped jerseys aren't calling the game for the Packers.
Giants: Packers - Preview III
Giants fans are all pumped up about the game this Sunday, with the sudden rise of the Giants defense and the rediscovery of the running game, they are almost expecting to win the game. I am as an exuberant and irrational as the next fan but I think we need a little dose of reality mixed in with our optimism. Look at it this way: Eli had a great year and has certainly thrust himself into the conversation when talking about the best QBs in the league. He threw for 4,900 yards, for 29 TDs and 16 INTs. Unfortunately, the guy on the other sideline had numbers that dwarfed Eli's impressive statistics. He threw for 45 TDs, more than 50% more than Eli and threw only 6 INTS compared to Eli's 16. Eli may have thrust himself into the picture when talking about the best QBs in the league, but Rodgers is first on line.
I guess the question is not - is the Packers offense with Rodgers better than the Giants offense with Eli, because they clearly are. The question is can the Giants defense rise up, make a few plays and level the playing field so that the Giants have a chance. But let's not fool ourselves, the Packers are defending Super Bowl champions, coming off a 15-1 season, with the best player in the NFL on their team, who happens to play the most important position on the field. Beating the Packers is not going to be an easy task. They are favored by 7 1/2 and probably should be favored by more. The only chance the Giants have is if their DL can knock Rodgers to the ground often enough to make him merely mortal instead of the superhuman player that he is.
Giants defense has improved by playing more man coverage underneath with safeties playing zone on top. There are a few holes that this creates. First, if the safeties are giving help to the outside WRs, which they should to take away the big plays, the middle of the field with Jermichael Finley, the Packers uber-talented TE will have space to roam. Second, with the underneath CBs playing exclusively man, lanes for Rodgers to run will open up and he is a very good runner. To handle this, Giants need a big game from their LBs, particularly Boley and Williams in coverage on Finley. This is a tough task, but I think Williams might be up for it. He was a half step late last time Giants played the Packers, but he has improved since then and he is a talented, athletic player. Keeping Rodgers from running is a tough challenge. Keeping a LB spying on him reduces coverage on the back end. Keeping the DL with very controlled disciplined rush lanes to keep him in the pocket compromises their ability to get to the passer. I would occasionally keep a LB in the area to challenge him, but would not sell my defense down the river to stop Rodgers running. Giants have atheltic DL and you have to hope that they can jkeep him controlled.
It also seems like a game where Amukamara will have to play some CB. Packers go with 4 WR often and the Giants will likely play 6 DBs against this formation. Fewell has been saying that Amukamara looks more confident and is playing better in practice. Let's see if he's right. Giants will probably be in a lot of nickel coverage because of Packers inclination to pass the ball. Further, the Packers don't run the ball very effectively and even when they do run, they don't have the power running game that can hurt a light defensive configuration.
This is going to be a very difficult game to win. Giants have to play a near perfect game on offense. I think they may need to score in the 30s to win this game, because even a very good defensive effort will likely not keep the Packers below 28 points. The worry is that the Packers defense finally wakes up and has a good game making it difficult for the Giants offense. This is essentially the same Packers defense that played very well last year when the Packers won the title. For some reason they took an enormous step backwards this year with mostly the same personnel. I think the Packers changed their defensive strategy and became a high risk, gambling defense. This leads to lots of yardage yielded but also lots of turnovers. The Pacekrs defensive strategy seems to be a team wide game plan. It is as if they are saying: our offense can outscore your offense if they get the same number of possessions in the game. If, on the other hand, we have more possessions for our offense because we get a few turnovers, we will CERTAINLY outscore your offense and win in a rout.
I guess the question is not - is the Packers offense with Rodgers better than the Giants offense with Eli, because they clearly are. The question is can the Giants defense rise up, make a few plays and level the playing field so that the Giants have a chance. But let's not fool ourselves, the Packers are defending Super Bowl champions, coming off a 15-1 season, with the best player in the NFL on their team, who happens to play the most important position on the field. Beating the Packers is not going to be an easy task. They are favored by 7 1/2 and probably should be favored by more. The only chance the Giants have is if their DL can knock Rodgers to the ground often enough to make him merely mortal instead of the superhuman player that he is.
Giants defense has improved by playing more man coverage underneath with safeties playing zone on top. There are a few holes that this creates. First, if the safeties are giving help to the outside WRs, which they should to take away the big plays, the middle of the field with Jermichael Finley, the Packers uber-talented TE will have space to roam. Second, with the underneath CBs playing exclusively man, lanes for Rodgers to run will open up and he is a very good runner. To handle this, Giants need a big game from their LBs, particularly Boley and Williams in coverage on Finley. This is a tough task, but I think Williams might be up for it. He was a half step late last time Giants played the Packers, but he has improved since then and he is a talented, athletic player. Keeping Rodgers from running is a tough challenge. Keeping a LB spying on him reduces coverage on the back end. Keeping the DL with very controlled disciplined rush lanes to keep him in the pocket compromises their ability to get to the passer. I would occasionally keep a LB in the area to challenge him, but would not sell my defense down the river to stop Rodgers running. Giants have atheltic DL and you have to hope that they can jkeep him controlled.
It also seems like a game where Amukamara will have to play some CB. Packers go with 4 WR often and the Giants will likely play 6 DBs against this formation. Fewell has been saying that Amukamara looks more confident and is playing better in practice. Let's see if he's right. Giants will probably be in a lot of nickel coverage because of Packers inclination to pass the ball. Further, the Packers don't run the ball very effectively and even when they do run, they don't have the power running game that can hurt a light defensive configuration.
This is going to be a very difficult game to win. Giants have to play a near perfect game on offense. I think they may need to score in the 30s to win this game, because even a very good defensive effort will likely not keep the Packers below 28 points. The worry is that the Packers defense finally wakes up and has a good game making it difficult for the Giants offense. This is essentially the same Packers defense that played very well last year when the Packers won the title. For some reason they took an enormous step backwards this year with mostly the same personnel. I think the Packers changed their defensive strategy and became a high risk, gambling defense. This leads to lots of yardage yielded but also lots of turnovers. The Pacekrs defensive strategy seems to be a team wide game plan. It is as if they are saying: our offense can outscore your offense if they get the same number of possessions in the game. If, on the other hand, we have more possessions for our offense because we get a few turnovers, we will CERTAINLY outscore your offense and win in a rout.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Giants: odds and ends week 19
I love to read the experts picking the games in the local newspapers. They often do this very detailed analysis, explaining what will happen in the game and why they think it will happen and provide a pick against the points always in a very assertive almost condescending tone. Of course, they are right about 50% of the time, which is how everybody does in Veags when they pick against those spreads. Every so often, like for playoff games, because they are able to concentrate on just a few games instead of a full 16 game schedule, they put on their thinking caps, work extra hard, analyze the statistics and tendencies of each team extra hard and do worse than 50%.
I got a real kick out of the handicapping expert Richard Witt who analyzed the Sunday football playoffs last week. He was 100% wrong. He picked the Falcons over the Giants to win outright, not even needing the points and in the over/under betting, he took over 46 1/2 points. Not only did he get the winning team wrong, but because he took the over, he was forecasting a wild, high scoring game. Maybe if it had been a high scoring game and the Falcons covered at the end, he could have at least said that he got the spirit of the game right - he knew it would be a wild, high scoring affair. But it was a defensive struggle and the team he thought was going to dominate instead got dominated itself.
He did the same thing with the Sunday AFC game between the Broncos and Steelers. Here too, he picked under when picking the over/under which was I think 37 points. He also took the Steelers to cover the substantial point spread they were giving. Instead, the Broncos not only covered the spread, but they did not even need any points, because they won the game outright. Furthermore, the game was a high scoring affair, completely contrary to his forecast. Once again, the expert not only got the winning team wrong, but completely misread the game from a defensive struggle he thought it would be to one where lots of yards and points were amassed by the teams. I love it when a self proclaimed expert receives his comeuppance.
I got a real kick out of the handicapping expert Richard Witt who analyzed the Sunday football playoffs last week. He was 100% wrong. He picked the Falcons over the Giants to win outright, not even needing the points and in the over/under betting, he took over 46 1/2 points. Not only did he get the winning team wrong, but because he took the over, he was forecasting a wild, high scoring game. Maybe if it had been a high scoring game and the Falcons covered at the end, he could have at least said that he got the spirit of the game right - he knew it would be a wild, high scoring affair. But it was a defensive struggle and the team he thought was going to dominate instead got dominated itself.
He did the same thing with the Sunday AFC game between the Broncos and Steelers. Here too, he picked under when picking the over/under which was I think 37 points. He also took the Steelers to cover the substantial point spread they were giving. Instead, the Broncos not only covered the spread, but they did not even need any points, because they won the game outright. Furthermore, the game was a high scoring affair, completely contrary to his forecast. Once again, the expert not only got the winning team wrong, but completely misread the game from a defensive struggle he thought it would be to one where lots of yards and points were amassed by the teams. I love it when a self proclaimed expert receives his comeuppance.
Giants: Packers preview II
People always talk about stopping a great offense by playing ball control, running the ball and keeping the other QB off the field. Giants have to be smart enough to NOT subscribe to that as a game plan. Giants are a big play offense and even though the running game has had a little revival recently, they are not built to pound the ball, convert 3rd down after 3rd down and move the ball in 15 play drives down the field. They led the league in plays greater than 30 yards and the Packers defense gave up the most big plays. Seems to me the convergence of those two revealing statistics is where the offensive game plan should be headed (he said somewhat sarcastically and definitely in understated fashion). The Giants ran for 170 yards against the Falcons and for over 100 against the Cowboys the week before, but they still failed to convert several short yardage situations on 3rd and 4th downs. Even the one 4th down they made at the goal line against the Falcons was not blocked very well and required a spin move by Jacobs, who was initially hit behind the line, to convert the 4th and 1. Giants running yardage came on a few long runs that they broke, not on consistent 3-4-5 yard pops, especially in the 1st quarter. The mantra for this week is one I have always embraced: throw early, run late. That goes in two ways.... throw early in the downs, so the defense is less likely to dial up a blitz and the pass blocking will be better. But more importantly this week - throw early in the game and get a lead, then run the ball late in the game to hold on to the ball and move the clock. Maybe the Packers will be a little stale early, because of their bye and resting their starters in week 17. If Giants attack from the outset, they might be able to get an early lead and get the Packers to play from behind. Rodgers will still make his throws and get his points, but maybe a little pressure on them, when they have had virtually none all year can help the Giants play a little looser and the Packers a little tighter. I am not saying that Eli should be hoisting up 50 yard throws on every play, but they need to take their shots down the field and attack the Packers DBs. Packers DBs and LBs like to gamble and jump routes, one of the reasons they lead the NFL in INTs. Eli has to be aggressive, but still careful with the ball and anticipate when the Packers might be looking for a pick. With this pass first mentality, I am not saying that time of possession is completely immaterial. But it is secondary in importance and does not need to be achieved by a pounding running game. Modest prediction: Manningham will make a big play on a double move at some point in the game.
KC Chiefs beat the Packers by putting on a big pass rush and by playing aggressive man-to-man with their talented CBs. Giants don't have great CBs, so they will need to rely on even better play from the DL to get after Rodgers. It could be that simple - if the Packers OL can block the Giants DL, then Rodgers will be hard to slow down and will put up lots of points. If Giants DL can beat up the Packers OL and get to Rodgers, then Giants have a chance.
The interesting defensive game plan questions is whether the Giants can survive with just a 4 man pass rush or whether they need to blitz often to get pressure. Another big question is how to handle Jermichael Finley, the Packers talented TE. Can Giants handle him with a LB, most likely Williams or do they need to play and extra DB. Packers don't run the ball very well - in fact in the game earlier this year in Met Life Stadium, Rodgers was the Packers leading rusher. What that says to me is that the Giants will be playing a lot of nickel coverage all the time, but the risk is that if the Giants play man-to-man exclusively, it could open running lanes for Rodgers. Giants may need to have a LB keep an eye on Rodgers, but that is risky because it takes someone out of coverage. Giants need a huge game from their DL and from their defense overall. Duh.
When did the Giants players forget that they were members of the NY Giants and start thinking they were the NY Jets? JPP guaranteeing... WRs talking about making big plays on the vulnerable Packers DBs.... defense very confident. What happened to "Talk is cheap, play the game".
KC Chiefs beat the Packers by putting on a big pass rush and by playing aggressive man-to-man with their talented CBs. Giants don't have great CBs, so they will need to rely on even better play from the DL to get after Rodgers. It could be that simple - if the Packers OL can block the Giants DL, then Rodgers will be hard to slow down and will put up lots of points. If Giants DL can beat up the Packers OL and get to Rodgers, then Giants have a chance.
The interesting defensive game plan questions is whether the Giants can survive with just a 4 man pass rush or whether they need to blitz often to get pressure. Another big question is how to handle Jermichael Finley, the Packers talented TE. Can Giants handle him with a LB, most likely Williams or do they need to play and extra DB. Packers don't run the ball very well - in fact in the game earlier this year in Met Life Stadium, Rodgers was the Packers leading rusher. What that says to me is that the Giants will be playing a lot of nickel coverage all the time, but the risk is that if the Giants play man-to-man exclusively, it could open running lanes for Rodgers. Giants may need to have a LB keep an eye on Rodgers, but that is risky because it takes someone out of coverage. Giants need a huge game from their DL and from their defense overall. Duh.
When did the Giants players forget that they were members of the NY Giants and start thinking they were the NY Jets? JPP guaranteeing... WRs talking about making big plays on the vulnerable Packers DBs.... defense very confident. What happened to "Talk is cheap, play the game".
Giants: Packers preview I
This is going to be a tough game. Giants are clearly playing their best football of the year, with the defense emerging as a productive unit just in the nick of time. Offense has been good all year and shows no signs of slowing down. In fact, that unit also seems to be improving, with Manningham now returned to full health, with Bradshaw recovered from his foot problems, with Jacobs inexplicably finding a lost step and (therefore) with the running game returning to some form of productivity. Let's not forget the special teams - even though Tynes has missed a few very makeable FGs in the last few weeks (a touch of nostalgia there - have to go into Green bay with some worries about Tynes kicking FGs) the punter Weatherford has been absolutely lights out, putting a ribbon on what has been a great year punting. All of those things seem to be pointing up for the Giants and presumably give them a chance in this game. But let's not forget that Aaron Rodgers is the best player in the NFL and if he gets hot, the Packers will likely win, no matter what the Giants do.
The only way to stop a great QB who has great offensive skill position players around him is to get after him with a pass rush. If you can do it with just the DL so that you can still drop 6 or 7 into coverage, even better. The Giants defense picked up steam and started to play better the last few games of the season and everyone attributed it to the following significant changes:
Second big improvement in the LB corps besides Boley is the improvement of the other LBs - Blackburn has been a net add to the group, but Kiwanuka and Jacquian Williams have both greatly improved their play. Perhaps the same reasoning can be applied to these two as we used for JPP. Kiwanuka is a natural DE, played that position his entire college career at BC. He was shifted to LB two years ago, then was shifted back to DE last year and now is playing at LB again. My hope is that he will be shifted back to DE next year, but for now, it is probably true that his learning curve is steep and he has to develop instincts for the position. Williams, another USF product like JPP, played LB at USF, but probably did not grow with the same level of quality coaching in college that exists at the major football factories like LSU, Alabama, Tennessee, USC, etc. Therefore, for him too, every game of experience is invaluable towards becoming a legitimate NFL LB. Williams has tremendous speed and has the potential to play the LB position at a high level for many years. He made a lot of bad mistakes and gave up big plays early in the year, when he was thrown onto the field and forced to play all 3 downs before he was ready. Now they have reduced his package somewhat and he plays primarily the nickel LB. He has excelled the last several weeks in pass coverage, often lining up against the opposing TE man-to-man. He held down 3 very good TEs - Keller, Witten and Gonzalez. He was matched up against Finley in the Green Bay game and Finley had a big night. Williams went for the INT on the first play of the winning FG drive at the end of that game and gave up a 25 yard completion. This will be a tough cover for Williams or Boley, but holding down Finley is important part of the defense for the Giants. Williams success in covering TEs allowed Fewell to go to a more aggressive man scheme dedicating DBs to covering WRs.
Back to the subject - Giants have to play great defense and hope to hold the Packers to around 28 points. It will be tough to score that many points, Giants have to play a very clean offensive game with no big turnovers and cash in on their chances with TDs, not FGs. This game is in the hands of the QB - Giants should sprinkle in some runs, but should not be afraid to throw the ball deep.
When the Giants were heading into the first Dallas game at 6-6, having lost 4 in a row, playing poor defensive football, I truly thought there was no way the Giants would make the playoffs. I even entertained dark fears that the Giants would run the table (in a bad way) and finish at 6-10. Look where they are now: in the playoffs, wildcard win in the bank and a game this Sunday against the best team in football, # 1 seed in the NFC. This NFL season has been filled with more unexpected results than any other season I can ever remember.
The only way to stop a great QB who has great offensive skill position players around him is to get after him with a pass rush. If you can do it with just the DL so that you can still drop 6 or 7 into coverage, even better. The Giants defense picked up steam and started to play better the last few games of the season and everyone attributed it to the following significant changes:
- The DL got healthy: Tuck recovered from some of his nagging injuries and Osi returned to the field.
- Boley returned to health and shored up the LB play
- DC Fewell changed the play calls, went to less conservative zone coverage and mixed in a higher percentage of man-to-man underneath with cover 2 zone on top.
Second big improvement in the LB corps besides Boley is the improvement of the other LBs - Blackburn has been a net add to the group, but Kiwanuka and Jacquian Williams have both greatly improved their play. Perhaps the same reasoning can be applied to these two as we used for JPP. Kiwanuka is a natural DE, played that position his entire college career at BC. He was shifted to LB two years ago, then was shifted back to DE last year and now is playing at LB again. My hope is that he will be shifted back to DE next year, but for now, it is probably true that his learning curve is steep and he has to develop instincts for the position. Williams, another USF product like JPP, played LB at USF, but probably did not grow with the same level of quality coaching in college that exists at the major football factories like LSU, Alabama, Tennessee, USC, etc. Therefore, for him too, every game of experience is invaluable towards becoming a legitimate NFL LB. Williams has tremendous speed and has the potential to play the LB position at a high level for many years. He made a lot of bad mistakes and gave up big plays early in the year, when he was thrown onto the field and forced to play all 3 downs before he was ready. Now they have reduced his package somewhat and he plays primarily the nickel LB. He has excelled the last several weeks in pass coverage, often lining up against the opposing TE man-to-man. He held down 3 very good TEs - Keller, Witten and Gonzalez. He was matched up against Finley in the Green Bay game and Finley had a big night. Williams went for the INT on the first play of the winning FG drive at the end of that game and gave up a 25 yard completion. This will be a tough cover for Williams or Boley, but holding down Finley is important part of the defense for the Giants. Williams success in covering TEs allowed Fewell to go to a more aggressive man scheme dedicating DBs to covering WRs.
Back to the subject - Giants have to play great defense and hope to hold the Packers to around 28 points. It will be tough to score that many points, Giants have to play a very clean offensive game with no big turnovers and cash in on their chances with TDs, not FGs. This game is in the hands of the QB - Giants should sprinkle in some runs, but should not be afraid to throw the ball deep.
When the Giants were heading into the first Dallas game at 6-6, having lost 4 in a row, playing poor defensive football, I truly thought there was no way the Giants would make the playoffs. I even entertained dark fears that the Giants would run the table (in a bad way) and finish at 6-10. Look where they are now: in the playoffs, wildcard win in the bank and a game this Sunday against the best team in football, # 1 seed in the NFC. This NFL season has been filled with more unexpected results than any other season I can ever remember.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Giants - Packers review III
Some other little notes and observations from the Packers game follow:
It's still disappointing that Amukamara was not on the field at the end and the Giants had to rely on Blackmon, who was signed off the street just two weeks ago, to play man coverage on the outside against Jordy Nelson. They lined up right underneath me, I looked at the matchup and said to my brother, at the game with me, "if I were Rodgers, this is where I would go"; 3 seconds later Packers were in FG range. Can't beat up Blackmon too badly - he said he hadn't played CB in 6 or 7 years and his coverage was really not that bad. It required a perfect throw by Rodgers, a great catch by Nelson and an athletic, acrobatic move by Nelson to twist his body around and keep his feet in bounds. Not sure Amukamara would have done much better, but I would have liked to see him on the field. In today's papers, Amukamara said he was battling some foot injury - the foot he broke earlier was sore and he turned his ankle during the game. But Fewell said after the game that the Prince was fatigued. So - which was it - fatigue or a foot injury? Reading between the lines, it sounds to me like Fewell was ticked that Amukamara got beat a few times and was sitting him.
The Giants offense and Eli had a really great game and kept the Giants in the game with several key plays and clutch drives. Giants were down 21-17 at halftime and the Packers, aided by a bogus PI call against Amukamara, took the ball down the field and scored on the opening possession of the second half, giving them a 28-17 lead. If the Giants don't do something offensively right there and the Packers come back and score, all of a sudden with an 18 point lead, the game looks out of reach and could turn into a rout. Kind of what happened the week before against the Saints - Giants closed to 11, went down 18, made a turnover and instead of competing, they were mentally ready to board the bus to the airport. But Eli comes out and on the first play hits Nicks on a deep post for 50 yards, which immediately lifts the mood of the team and sure pumped up the crowd in the stadium. Then, Eli converts on the drive and takes them in for a score after only 3:20 and 5 plays to get the Giants right back in it, trailing by only 4.
Packers took the next kickoff, got a few first downs but Giants stopped them and forced a punt. Packers punted perfectly and covered it down on the 1. Here was the second impressive, clutch drive by the Giants. If the Giants play it safe, run it a few times and punt, Packers get great field position and are poised to get another score and open up that 11 point lead again. Instead, Giants move the ball impressively down the field from the shadows of their goal post and move into position for a FG, making the score 28-27. There were two great plays on that drive that showed me the quality of the QB and the offense. Giants had a 3rd and 7 from their own 4. Eli looked at Cruz coming across the middle on a short in cut. But the S read the play and moved up to try and pick off the pass. Earlier in the season, Eli probably would have thrown it and it would have been a pick, effectively ending the game. Instead, Cruz and Eli read the S, and adjusted the route. Cruz stopped in his tracks and faded back outside. Eli cocked his arm, but when he saw Cruz double back to the outside (maybe it was an option route where this was one of the reads) he held up, pulled the ball back, reloaded and hit Cruz on a beautiful little 10 yard gain for a first down. After that Giants OL opened some nice holes for Jacobs right up the middle who ran the ball effectively for about 30 yards on 4 or 5 carries, but Giants had another 3rd and 7 at about midfield. Eli was given good time to throw and hit Ballard on a beautiful out route, where he had to get it over the S and LB and drop it down into Ballard's breadbasket just before he went out of bounds. Giants drive stalled after that, but they kicked a FG, moving the ball impressively from their own 1. This FG made the score 28-27 and kept the game as a 1 score game, even if the Packers were to score a TD (which they did).
After an exchange of punts, the Packers scored with a little less than 4 minutes left and the Giants offense responded again with a TD drive to tie the game with a little less than 1 minute left in the game. In total, Giants had 4 possessions in the second half and had 2 TDs, 1 FG and 1 punt, all playing from behind, all critical to tying the game. Impressive stuff.
Blatant Second Guesses (permitted if you're a blogger):
Giants had 1st and goal at the 2 with 1:16 left in the game trailing by 8. Of course they needed a score, but they also did not want to leave time on the clock for Rodgers. I understand that you can't waste plays - because you can't control how many tries you need to get in, but the Giants should have thought of running the ball there once in order to burn some clock. Instead, Eli threw two incomplete passes on 1st and 2nd downs, and hit Nicks for a TD on 3rd down. The scoring drive happened at 1:02 wasting only 14 seconds on the clock for all three plays combined. If they had run once and wasted say 30-35 seconds, they still would have time to score and would have left Rodgers only 25 seconds instead of 58. Then, perhaps the Giants play a more conservative defense, keep the Packers off the board and force OT.
Jacquian Williams probably should not have gone or the ball on the first play after the Giants tied the game. He should have tackled Finley after 10 yards and not given him the extra 15. (Play the man, not the ball works in hockey, but also seems to fit here.) I don't know if Fewell reminded the defense to "keep them in front of you", or if the defense was instructed to play aggressively and go for the ball. Giants were in a man-to-man for that entire possession, so maybe Williams was just going with the flow.
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