Thursday, January 12, 2012

Giants: odds and ends week 19

I love to read the experts picking the games in the local newspapers. They often do this very detailed analysis, explaining what will happen in the game and why they think it will happen and provide a pick against the points always in a very assertive almost condescending tone. Of course, they are right about 50% of the time, which is how everybody does in Veags when they pick against those spreads. Every so often, like for playoff games, because they are able to concentrate on just a few games instead of a full 16 game schedule, they put on their thinking caps, work extra hard, analyze the statistics and tendencies of each team extra hard and do worse than 50%.

I got a real kick out of the handicapping expert Richard Witt who analyzed the Sunday football playoffs last week. He was 100% wrong. He picked the Falcons over the Giants to win outright, not even needing the points and in the over/under betting, he took over 46 1/2 points. Not only did he get the winning team wrong, but because he took the over, he was forecasting a wild, high scoring game. Maybe if it had been a high scoring game and the Falcons covered at the end, he could have at least said that he got the spirit of the game right - he knew it would be a wild, high scoring affair. But it was a defensive struggle and the team he thought was going to dominate instead got dominated itself.

He did the same thing with the Sunday AFC game between the Broncos and Steelers. Here too, he picked under when picking the over/under which was I think 37 points. He also took the Steelers to cover the substantial point spread they were giving. Instead, the Broncos not only covered the spread, but they did not even need any points, because they won the game outright. Furthermore, the game was a high scoring affair, completely contrary to his forecast. Once again, the expert not only got the winning team wrong, but completely misread the game from a defensive struggle he thought it would be to one where lots of yards and points were amassed by the teams. I love it when a self proclaimed expert receives his comeuppance.

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