A win is a win, I get that. That is especially true at this time of year when the team is getting itself in position to make the playoffs and even trying to get the best seeding that it can in the tournament. Certainly, even in terms of harbingers and predictors of future performance, there were enough good things to take out of last night's game. The defense was overpowering against a very good OL. The DBs were outstanding in coverage and the LBs played one of their better games. The running game was excellent, although not as consistent as you would like to see it (more about that in a later post). So in the big picture, a good running game and a strong defense are the exact components you want to be successful in the playoffs, especially in the northeast and in cold weather. The last three games the Giants have are all cold weather venues: at home against the Eagles next week and the last two against Green Bay and Washington, both outdoor, cold weather stadiums. But we analyze these games not just to be happy about the wins and to take pleasure in the good points, but also to criticize the worrisome aspects of the game. And I'll return to the question that is the title of this post, "What the heck is wrong with Eli?"
Let's pull out the excuses: Eli plays in bad weather, the wind and the cold play tricks with the ball and Detroit was freezing cold yesterday. Oh wait.... game was played in a dome. It's hard to hear on the road in a dome and the team is likely to miss a line call, adjustment or play change because of the noise leading to a miscommunication between QB and WR causing the INT. Oh wait.... the game was played in a neutral site and it was so quiet, it could have been a stanza in 'Twas the night before Christmas. Not a creature was stirring, not even a drunk, misguided Lions fan. Eli's WRs are injured, he's playing with subs and they don't know the offense well, so it's likely that the QB and WR won't be on the same page leading to an INT. Oh wait, Nicks was back and both the INT's were passes intended for him on perfect routes that he ran. You get the idea. Add to that the fact that Giants had 200+ yards rushing, that Eli has now been sacked only once in 6 games and has largely had a clean pocket to throw out of and there's only one conclusion to draw. But there's one other thing to lean on that adds to my argument, that upsets me even more. Eli missed a TD pass to Nicks when he had the DB beat and the ball was overthrown. I can almost live with the INT's if there is plenty of productivity to compensate for it. My assertion is not that Eli is a bad QB; in fact I still think he is a great QB, but he is sure not having a good year. He's got to get his game back together if the Giants are going to have any kind of success in the playoffs this year.
Showing posts with label vikings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label vikings. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Giants: Vikings game delayed
Because of severe storm in the mid-west, the Giants - Vikings game was delayed and rescheduled to Monday night. However, I just heard a report on the news that said that because of the snow on the roof of the Metro Dome, Mall of America Dome, Hubert Humphrey Dome or whatever the heck they call the stadium nowadays, apparently, the bubble deflated and the stadium will not be playable even Monday night.
It seems to me that it is the responsibility of the home team to provide a playable stadium and if they cannot, they forfeit the right to have the game played in their city. To reschedule the game to Tuesday night on the hope that the stadium will be playable by then creates an enormous disadvantage for the Giants for the following week's game. It seems to me there are a few alternatives:
1. Vikings forfeit the game - obviously no one is going to want to do that
2. Move the game to NJ or a neutral field and play it Monday night
3. If the Vikings can guarantee that the stadium will be ready the following day, play the game Tuesday night and move the Giants-Eagles game next week to Monday night, so the Giants will have the extra day to prepare for that game.
There is precedent for option 2; it is what the league did when Katrina hit and the New Orleans Super Dome was unplayable. The Giants and Saints played in Giants Stadium. Of course it gives the Giants a bit of an advantage with what is in effect an extra home game, but if the Vikings can not provide a playable field, that's their loss. Theoretically, the game could be played on a neutral field somewhere as an alternative.
Two neutral sites that are relatively nearby and are apparently being considered are Ford Field in Detroit and Lucas Field in Indianapolis. It would be pretty cool to have the game played in Lucas Field because the Colts fans would obviously welcome Eli, their quarterback-in-law and root for the Giants. Playing at Ford Field in Detroit would also be special, but only for me on a personal level. You see, my son is an undergraduate at University of Michigan and misses a lot of the Giants home games. This would give him an opportunity to go see the Giants and root for them. (I hope he took his Eli Manning jersey with him to college!)
It seems to me that it is the responsibility of the home team to provide a playable stadium and if they cannot, they forfeit the right to have the game played in their city. To reschedule the game to Tuesday night on the hope that the stadium will be playable by then creates an enormous disadvantage for the Giants for the following week's game. It seems to me there are a few alternatives:
1. Vikings forfeit the game - obviously no one is going to want to do that
2. Move the game to NJ or a neutral field and play it Monday night
3. If the Vikings can guarantee that the stadium will be ready the following day, play the game Tuesday night and move the Giants-Eagles game next week to Monday night, so the Giants will have the extra day to prepare for that game.
There is precedent for option 2; it is what the league did when Katrina hit and the New Orleans Super Dome was unplayable. The Giants and Saints played in Giants Stadium. Of course it gives the Giants a bit of an advantage with what is in effect an extra home game, but if the Vikings can not provide a playable field, that's their loss. Theoretically, the game could be played on a neutral field somewhere as an alternative.
Two neutral sites that are relatively nearby and are apparently being considered are Ford Field in Detroit and Lucas Field in Indianapolis. It would be pretty cool to have the game played in Lucas Field because the Colts fans would obviously welcome Eli, their quarterback-in-law and root for the Giants. Playing at Ford Field in Detroit would also be special, but only for me on a personal level. You see, my son is an undergraduate at University of Michigan and misses a lot of the Giants home games. This would give him an opportunity to go see the Giants and root for them. (I hope he took his Eli Manning jersey with him to college!)
Friday, December 10, 2010
Giants: Vikings preview
On paper, the Vikings are really good, regardless of their issues at the QB position. On offense they have a big OL, the best RB in football in Peterson, and weapons in the passing game in Harvin, Rice and Shiancoe. Rice and Harvin are apparently nursing injuries so they may not be at full strength this week. You see how important QB play is in this league - Favre has had an absolutely awful year with 18 INTs, only 6 TDs, a host of bad decisions, poor yards per attempt and one fired coach on his resume. I think we see what happens when the Vikings get even marginally improved QB play - last week Tavaris Jackson came in and put up 38 points, despite throwing 3 INTs himself. So there is no doubt that the Vikings are a a dangerous offensive team. I have not followed them closely, but the word is that their OL has underperformed this year. Maybe the firing of unpopular coach Childress woke them up a bit and inspired the OL to play more fiercely. This will be the second team that the Giants play that has taken the unusual step of mid-season coach firing. Let's hope the results are different this time.
On the other side of the ball, their run defense is strong, but their pass defense is so-so. Their pass defense is predicated on getting after the QB and not giving him time to throw, but the DL has not played inspired football, with Jared Allen having a mediocre year. If the Giants can protect Eli, which they have done fairly well recently, with the OL getting a starter back and with Nicks and/or Smith probably coming back, the offense should be able to move the ball. I would come out throwing and establish the run later on. That's my mantra this week: Throw early, run late.
During the rash of OL injuries the Giants signed a backup OL-man named Jamon Meredith and he has been active the past few weeks. He has been playing occasionally as the extra TE and the reason I bring him up is that he is an impressive looking physical player. He is tall, looks muscular but lean, and the few times I saw him on ST, looked like he can really run. I have no information on him, other than that he is a 2nd year player out of South Carolina and I don't even know what team he was on last year. He looks good, though. Look for # 79 if you get a chance.
I was surprised to see Shawn Andrews back in the locker room and back at practice, though only working on rehabbing his back. I thought he was done for the year and maybe for his career. He spoke optimistically about returning this year, as soon as a few weeks.
I guess it was a great move by the Giants to keep Beatty on the roster and not put him on IR when he broke his foot early in the year and missed 6-7 weeks. His presence on the roster really helped these past few weeks. I'd like to see him get some more playing time and develop his skills, but I can't argue with using Diehl. The match up between Jared Allen and Diehl is a critical one this weekend.
No wind, fast turf, in the dome, starting WRs coming back - look for Giants passing game to take some shots down field this week.
On the other side of the ball, their run defense is strong, but their pass defense is so-so. Their pass defense is predicated on getting after the QB and not giving him time to throw, but the DL has not played inspired football, with Jared Allen having a mediocre year. If the Giants can protect Eli, which they have done fairly well recently, with the OL getting a starter back and with Nicks and/or Smith probably coming back, the offense should be able to move the ball. I would come out throwing and establish the run later on. That's my mantra this week: Throw early, run late.
During the rash of OL injuries the Giants signed a backup OL-man named Jamon Meredith and he has been active the past few weeks. He has been playing occasionally as the extra TE and the reason I bring him up is that he is an impressive looking physical player. He is tall, looks muscular but lean, and the few times I saw him on ST, looked like he can really run. I have no information on him, other than that he is a 2nd year player out of South Carolina and I don't even know what team he was on last year. He looks good, though. Look for # 79 if you get a chance.
I was surprised to see Shawn Andrews back in the locker room and back at practice, though only working on rehabbing his back. I thought he was done for the year and maybe for his career. He spoke optimistically about returning this year, as soon as a few weeks.
I guess it was a great move by the Giants to keep Beatty on the roster and not put him on IR when he broke his foot early in the year and missed 6-7 weeks. His presence on the roster really helped these past few weeks. I'd like to see him get some more playing time and develop his skills, but I can't argue with using Diehl. The match up between Jared Allen and Diehl is a critical one this weekend.
No wind, fast turf, in the dome, starting WRs coming back - look for Giants passing game to take some shots down field this week.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Giants: random midweek thoughts
This is a Giants blog, not a Jets blog, but I want to add just a comment or two about the Jets-Patriots game this past Monday night. Really this is more about Bellichick than it is about the Jets. I am really impressed with Bellichick and his team construction strategy along with his game planning skills. A few years ago, when Moss was in his prime, Bellichick used Moss to power his vertical passing game. In 2007, we all remember that the Patriots were the highest scoring team in NFL history and Brady threw 50 TD passes, the single season record. In my opinion, in response to that vertical passing game, Rex Ryan and the Jets brought in Cromartie as the second CB to play opposite Revis. Cromartie is big, athletic, has long arms, and good straight line speed. He is a perfect CB to cover a big WR who is a pure vertical threat because of those physical skills. IMO, Bellichick countered right back by remaking the roster and the strategy this season. He saw Moss' skills declining and instead built a passing attack that used quickness rather than pure vertical speed. Instead of attacking the outside of the field with speed, he is attacking the middle of the field with quickness. He is using his excellent young TEs, his pass catching RBs and small quick WRs in Welker and Branch to attack. The Jets weakness on defense is the middle of the field, with LBs being good tacklers and run stoppers but not good pass defenders. The Jets S group is also better at blitzing than it is at pass defense. This weakness is accentuated with one of the starting safeties out because of injury. On the outside, Cromartie (and to a lesser extent, even Revis) have the physical makeup to play a WR like Moss, but not the quicker Branch and Welker. Very impressive job by Bellichick.
Everyone is forgetting that the Vikings went to the NFC Championship game last year and that they have gotten back their key WR from that run, Sidney Rice. They seem to have a lot of weapons on offense: Rice, Harvin and ex-Giants TE Shiancoe in the passing game and Adrian Petereson, the best RB in football to handle the running game. They do have some questions at QB and the OL has not been playing great this year, even though they do have some big names in the OL. The team may be more energized with the replacement of coach Brad Childress, a very unpopular figure in the locker room. All things considered, this is a very dangerous game for the Giants. They really need to win, because it is both a conference game as well as against a team that will be a common opponent with the Eagles, both important tie breaker factors for the playoffs.
Eli has had his worst games against the Vikings. We all remember the awful 4 INT game in Giants Stadium as well as a few other stinkers. In all he has 9 INTs and only 2 TDs against the Vikes.
Eagles have two games left against the Cowboys, the first one this week in Big D. All together now: "Let's go Cowboys".
Giants seem to have found someone who can make some big plays in coverage on ST in Devin Harris, although it may be just a one week wonder, motivated as he surely was to make a big showing against his former team. It would be nice if the Giants could find some buzz in their KO and punt return game also. Ward had a good KO return last week, so maybe he keeps that job. But punt returns have done nothing this year. Best move Reynaud has made is to wave his arms emphatically when the punt is short and he wants to keep his Giants teammates away from it so as not to create a fumble. How about running up and catching the ball and preventing a 15 or 20 yard roll on those short punts?
Speaking of punts, I have a proposal for what statistic to use to measure the quality we want from a punter. Everyone looks at gross yards and net yards on punting, which are surely the right measures. Furthermore, you might look at number of times the punter drops the ball inside the 20 since that can affect total yardage. Those measures are fine, but the statistic we use to measure the length of punts and the net yards is average. While that is somewhat instructive and a straightforward stat, it seems to be the wrong stat. What we want out of the punter is consistency. If he booms a 65 yarder one time and then shanks a 15 yard punt the next time, his average is the same as if he hits two 40 yard kicks, but the affect on the team is worse. On his two 40 yard punts, he is giving the defense a chance both times by not giving up field position. In the other circumstance, he is putting pressure on the defense on the 15 yard punt and not really compensating for it by getting more yards on the other punt in this hypothetical case.
You could look at the standard deviation of punt, which is a measure of how widely spread the sample is, but that it is a bit too esoteric a number and not intuitive to most people. I think what we should be measuring is the 90th percentile. In other words, we want to have 90% of the punters kicks to be good ones and are willing to live with 10% weaker kicks. The 90th percentile should be around 40 net yards and this, combined with average net yards will be the best statistic to describe the quality of the punter.
Everyone is forgetting that the Vikings went to the NFC Championship game last year and that they have gotten back their key WR from that run, Sidney Rice. They seem to have a lot of weapons on offense: Rice, Harvin and ex-Giants TE Shiancoe in the passing game and Adrian Petereson, the best RB in football to handle the running game. They do have some questions at QB and the OL has not been playing great this year, even though they do have some big names in the OL. The team may be more energized with the replacement of coach Brad Childress, a very unpopular figure in the locker room. All things considered, this is a very dangerous game for the Giants. They really need to win, because it is both a conference game as well as against a team that will be a common opponent with the Eagles, both important tie breaker factors for the playoffs.
Eli has had his worst games against the Vikings. We all remember the awful 4 INT game in Giants Stadium as well as a few other stinkers. In all he has 9 INTs and only 2 TDs against the Vikes.
Eagles have two games left against the Cowboys, the first one this week in Big D. All together now: "Let's go Cowboys".
Giants seem to have found someone who can make some big plays in coverage on ST in Devin Harris, although it may be just a one week wonder, motivated as he surely was to make a big showing against his former team. It would be nice if the Giants could find some buzz in their KO and punt return game also. Ward had a good KO return last week, so maybe he keeps that job. But punt returns have done nothing this year. Best move Reynaud has made is to wave his arms emphatically when the punt is short and he wants to keep his Giants teammates away from it so as not to create a fumble. How about running up and catching the ball and preventing a 15 or 20 yard roll on those short punts?
Speaking of punts, I have a proposal for what statistic to use to measure the quality we want from a punter. Everyone looks at gross yards and net yards on punting, which are surely the right measures. Furthermore, you might look at number of times the punter drops the ball inside the 20 since that can affect total yardage. Those measures are fine, but the statistic we use to measure the length of punts and the net yards is average. While that is somewhat instructive and a straightforward stat, it seems to be the wrong stat. What we want out of the punter is consistency. If he booms a 65 yarder one time and then shanks a 15 yard punt the next time, his average is the same as if he hits two 40 yard kicks, but the affect on the team is worse. On his two 40 yard punts, he is giving the defense a chance both times by not giving up field position. In the other circumstance, he is putting pressure on the defense on the 15 yard punt and not really compensating for it by getting more yards on the other punt in this hypothetical case.
You could look at the standard deviation of punt, which is a measure of how widely spread the sample is, but that it is a bit too esoteric a number and not intuitive to most people. I think what we should be measuring is the 90th percentile. In other words, we want to have 90% of the punters kicks to be good ones and are willing to live with 10% weaker kicks. The 90th percentile should be around 40 net yards and this, combined with average net yards will be the best statistic to describe the quality of the punter.
Thursday, December 25, 2008
What a difference a year makes
Last year going into week 17, the question was whether Coughlin and Giants would take their last game of the season seriously. Having clinched a playoff spot the week before against the Bills and being locked into the # 5 seed, there was nothing for the Giants to gain for themselves except of course, the historical obligation of trying to knock the Patriots out and prevent them from completing a perfect 16-0 regular season record. Of course you know what happened - Giants played all out against the Patriots, lost two players to injury in the game: Shaun O'Hara and Kawika Mitchell. Both missed time in the playoffs, but Eli played his best game of the season against the Patriots, the team gained confidence and went on their magical playoff run.
This year, the situation is somewhat different. Giants are not lacking for confidence, they have the top seed locked up and have nothing to play for this weekend against the Vikings. But - the Vikings and Bears are battling for a playoff spot and the Bears need to win themselves and need the Giants to beat the Vikings in order to make the playoffs. From a league and ethical perspective, Giants should play hard this week. It is not fair to lay down, let the Vikings win and prevent the Bears from making the playoffs. Furthermore, I think the Vikings are a much bigger threat than the Bears in the playoffs. They have a great RB in Peterson, a qb in Tavaris Jackson who is inexperienced but has a strong throwing arm and is a great runner. He's not a great, pure, accurate passer, but he has been playing much better since he began starting again the last few games. They have a great OL, with a LT in Bryant McKinnie that I salivate over and would love to have play for the Giants. He is huge and athletic. They have a LG playing next to him, Hutchinson who makes the pro bowl every year and is a very good player. They are dangerous in the playoffs and Giants might do well to try to beat them this week and not let them get into the playoffs at all. A qb who can run presents a dimension that can move the offense even in bad weather of the Meadowlands.
This year, the situation is somewhat different. Giants are not lacking for confidence, they have the top seed locked up and have nothing to play for this weekend against the Vikings. But - the Vikings and Bears are battling for a playoff spot and the Bears need to win themselves and need the Giants to beat the Vikings in order to make the playoffs. From a league and ethical perspective, Giants should play hard this week. It is not fair to lay down, let the Vikings win and prevent the Bears from making the playoffs. Furthermore, I think the Vikings are a much bigger threat than the Bears in the playoffs. They have a great RB in Peterson, a qb in Tavaris Jackson who is inexperienced but has a strong throwing arm and is a great runner. He's not a great, pure, accurate passer, but he has been playing much better since he began starting again the last few games. They have a great OL, with a LT in Bryant McKinnie that I salivate over and would love to have play for the Giants. He is huge and athletic. They have a LG playing next to him, Hutchinson who makes the pro bowl every year and is a very good player. They are dangerous in the playoffs and Giants might do well to try to beat them this week and not let them get into the playoffs at all. A qb who can run presents a dimension that can move the offense even in bad weather of the Meadowlands.
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